Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (17633)	12/26/2000 9:39:03 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Limtex, actually, I disagree with your assessment of AG's "performance", I believe that waiting with rate cuts and just supporting the market with "words" is the right thing to do right now. If he cuts rates here, without a real economic problem, he runs the risk of reinflating the bubble. The naz is still well over long term historic valuations (as well as the S&P) and his job is to prevent inflation and major recessions. There is yet no danger of a major recession, but reinflating the economy to a growth rate of 5% or so when labor is tight, would not be wise. The fact that oil is coming back down to more rational levels is the equivalent of a small tax cut, and that should eventually counteract the mild decline in end demand and GDP. Actually, Bush/Cheney are making a major effort to "talk the economy down" as early in their term as possible to get a roaring economy in the last two years of their term. I doubt twey will put pressure on Greenspan to reflate here, since by early 2004, we will then once more be faced with the need to debubble the bubble, a painful process which will not help their reelection. I, for one, am of the opinion that "Bush's Friends" in the oil industry engineered the rise to $35/barrel, to reduce the "good feeling" economy that was supporting the opposition's candidate. They have succeeded, and now, they are engineering the decline they need to prop some weak points in the economy. In short, we have been had (g). Zeev

To: limtex who wrote (17633)	12/26/2000 12:12:49 PM
From: 5dave22	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

L <We now not only have the greatest stock market crash in history, the absolute opposite of the Wealth effect but this morning we have oil prices at less than $22. Indeed so fast are they falling that one of the Worlds other odd-balls, Mr Gaddaffi has come out this morning saying the the West is conspiring to cut oil prices to $10 and that he is going to defend 'their' interest by freezing production.> I'll give you the phone number to my grandmother who was pretty wealthy in the 20's - and she'll tell you about the real 'greatest' crash in history. Today, the rich are still rich, the middle class is still middle class, employment is just fine, and NAZ is 56% higher at year end 2000 compared to year end 1998. If it continues to raise at 50% every two years (with hickups and spikes), you will retire a wealthy, wealthy man. Regards, Dave

To: limtex who wrote (17633)	12/26/2000 9:58:05 PM
From: Craig Freeman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Limtex, my take on your take is that you think that the Fed thinks that the entire world has been "irrationally exhuberent" ... and that for the Fed to make things right, that it has to crush markets worldwide. Did it occur to you that there is little in economic theory to support such a notion? There was a sound reason to crash the 'Nets. But, as a result, the U.S. economy is a trillion+ dollars weaker than it was just months ago. We have serious problems but the last thing the rest of the world wants is to see the U.S. spiral downward and inward. Foreign governments aren't so stupid as to think that a failing U.S. marketplace is a good thing. They will be forced to pump our economy up in order to maintain a stable export market. "Balance of trade" issues may not get much press but they mean more that most know. It's all in the equilibrium. Stand up too fast and you may come crashing down. Get up slowly and you will stand tall and stable. What we can't sustain on our own can be sustained with enough help from abroad. IMHO, when foreign countries spend their money and effort tweaking their markets to deal with U.S. import/export issues, the Fed will have obtained what it really wants -- those magical words -- "economic stability". Unfortunately, the Fed has more patience and a far bigger budget than anyone who posts here. As this all unfolds, for us "little people", it is probably going to be extremely confusing, and more likely than not, economically painful. Craig