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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (82640)	12/26/2000 10:01:26 AM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

I am trying to figure out what the h*ll is going on!! Scared to add any positions on such big movement on low volume. Did score some PRZ at the open though. TMR KMG DVN in the scopes as well..

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (82640)	12/26/2000 1:15:11 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP <All I have to say about this morning's activity is wow! Looks like some of the fund managers finally did their homework over the holidays. > "Q" - I don't think they did ANY homework other than looking where they needed to "pull" thier numbers up to - for bonus levels (VBG). We also have lots of "holiday daytraders" with this being a big vacation week & perhaps a bit of the Barons effect is in here as well. Concerning "wow"... imho, WOW is in the eye of the beholder...and needs to be put in perspective. re: ========================================================== isopatch who wrote (77239) From: John Q Public Wednesday, Oct 25, 2000 4:01 PM ET Reply #77240 of 82617 Hope you are right. Went to max margin this afternoon ==========================>> JQP re: your MAX MARGIN entry Oct 25th - at OSX 120ish; which was immediately followed by a collapse in the oilpatch stocks; to an intra-day bottom at OSX 94 - which was a 40%ish portfolio hit on max margin. - now that would be a "wow" imo (VBG)... Now you didn't/wouldn't answer any questions "live" during that freefall as to if you were holding, or folding (your 4th consecutive very convenient vacation during an Oilpatch blow off) - maybe only your broker knows for sure & perhaps he handled it for you once again (VBG)...was it Web Street that "sold you out & liquidated you the last time" ? ...here is a little "WOW/REALITY" check from your MAX Margin forray in late Oct to date: siliconinvestor.com NEM + 19% XAU +14.5 % XNG (Nat Gas index) + 3% XOI down - 4% S&P 500 down -5% OSX down - 9% NAZ down -24% ... I hope people here are taking advantage of the portfolio markups/window dressing & Barons effect here - to ring the register & take profits. I don't see this as "WOW" in reality - as we're only now just returning to where we were 6-8 weeks ago and only a few stocks are at new highs & few are making significant new highs. We saw the same window dressing/markup thing last year; especially in small cap E&P's as RRC jumped 25% from $2.56 to $3.18 on Dec 31st last year...as did a few other small caps, BELW + 20% $4.18 to $4.81,MEXP +26% .87 to $1.09 the last 2 days of Dec etc as fundies are obviously marking up their portfolio's - lots of Bonus Money generated on this last minute "window dressing".... Obviously "fundamentals" in the Oilpatch - especially Nat Gas E&P's have NEVER been better... but; yet into those fundamentals - all the Oilpatch indicies of late - sold off; or are still well below their late summer highs... they retraced directly into the crescendo top of fundamentals - even record Nat Gas Prices & E&P earnings. We "obviously" disconnected from fundamentals as we do time to time and the overhang of a slowing US Economy - which can rapidly change Crude & Nat Gas supply/demand dynamics & prices; along with a high risk/weak broad market is capping our fundamental upside here. We are still NOT in control of our own destiny here in the Oilpatch even with Historically positive underlying fundamentals and untill we are; I don't see a high reward/low risk opportunity and see most breakout rallies as profit taking / selling opps. Personally; I have only a few Oilpatch "calls" - 50% Gold/Silver and Cash... I am waiting for either the "mother of all buying/trading opps" in Tech and perhaps also in the Oilpatch on a sympathy retrace to the broad market. Untill the Market determines how soft the US Economy lands in 2001; we are in little danger of the Oilpatch outrunning us here. Is this move worthy of a "WOW" ? ...not imho; more like: "Been here & done that" .... a few times in fact. OSX still nearly 20% off its highs. XOI off about 5%, XNG has finally come back the last week here and did hit a new high today - but, on further strength I'd be looking to be continually trimming into further new highs & exit before the end of Winter from E&P land. Vince Farrell on CNBC and a few other positive Oilpatch Money Managers have all stated they see the strong possiblity of $4 - $4.25 Nat Gas later this spring after we exit this peak winter heating season. Imho; it will matter little that we are "falling" from $9 to still historically attractive levels; but merely that we are falling... If OPEC acquiesses, or if momenteum merely shifts in the futures markets off of negative Xmas retail figures & further economic slowing & Crude hits $20-$22; along with $4.25- $4.50 Nat Gas; there is no reason to think that the E&P's are going to new highs in light of the recent memoriesof $6-$9 NG & $35 Crude Oil fading away. The lessons of Sept '99 in E&P land were evidently soon forgotten here. Sell the confluence of record Oil & Gas Prices, Winter Weather & the California Crisis - that is a Profit taking event - not a buying opp... I would NOT fail to be ringing the E&P cash register here on any & all rallies and any significant accross the board "weather realated" breakout is a potential "final" sector over-weighting exit opp imo. I would definitely be planning to exit E&P's; or at least shift & rotate out of any subsector over-weighting there back to drillers/service before the end of this winter peak demand season - crisis. E&P's will be paying increasingly higher if not ramping dayrates with falling Oil & Gas receivables, so they will have negative comparable/sequential quarters shortly with falling Oil and Gas prices... but; Drillers will near 100% utilization shortly & their dayrates/earnings will take off & accelerate to sector leading fundamental performance levels. The land drillers imo have much of this priced in; but the offshore drillers and most service co's do not. I'd be looking for some "rotation" opps from E&P's to service / drillers. Instead of "wow" - I'd be saying "Ka-Ching" $$$$ & ringing that Cash Register.Not necessarially all today; but I'd be cashing in any 25% moves for sure... and I'd be planning a selling/profit taking strategy for E&P's this Winter - with tight trailing stops a must. I actually like the "shorting" opp that will ultimtely avail itself here in the E&P's versus taking the risk vs. reward that they go to significant hew highs here. Not shorting anything yet; but - let California trigger a true "crisis event" reaction & it's "put city"... I'm still "Sitting Golden Bull" untill I see better risk vs reward opps. I took 75% of everything out of the market in August and am still very happy I did; as the "Big & Easy Money" has left the building.... some trading opps; surely - but, not Max Margin risk vs reward opps; or "load the boat" territory yet imo... The Xmas retail season & further broad market earnings misses & revisions may bring us futher broad market downside and the Fed Cut in Janaury is not automatic imho; not with Easy Al & his endless Fiat Money Supply, full employment, a negative savings rate among consumers & still strong wage & benefit pressure; it is not "automatic" imo and actually if we cut; it will weaken the US Dollar and may lead to further foreign repatriation from out debt and equity markets. And if the Fed does NOT cut in January ? Welcome to Part III of the Bear ...capitulation and the DOW is inflated as far too many tech $$$ rolled into stocks with less than exciting fundamentals... part III will be "Capitulation" from Mutual Fund redememption - and the Dow will finally topple as well.... and "that" will take the Oilpatch down with it & that - may then finally present some attractive risk vs reward re-entry opps... I don't think we've seen the bottom in the broad market & the DOW is vastly overbought and will be part of the capitulation phase to the Bear that is far from over imo - and the Oilpatch can not rise against the grain... hasn't so far & surely will not upon exiting peak Winter Demand season for NG shortly... In a nushell; it's been a big yawn since the end of August & 75% of the market has taken a major hit since... Interesting 30 day chart below: siliconinvestor.com