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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2704)	12/26/2000 11:23:36 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3536

I guess I'm just not as negative on Europe as are Henry and Zeev. In many respects, I am downright bullish on Europe. While I can't argue with the problems that many European countries have with their type of capitalism, I don't think it is nearly the weight on their economies as is being suggested. I believe that the positives will far outweigh the negatives and produce a period of growth in Europe that will rival that which the U.S. has seen the past decade. While I think the American system is superior, it isn't perfect and its flaws haven't prevented excellent economic growth. In fact, you could argue that it is the growth that provides the maneuverability to make the changes. I believe the same will be true in Europe, that the system will be gradually reformed as the riches from growth allow. I see the cause and effect the other way. My optimism is squarely based on a completely different view of the Euro. I think it is a great idea and will prove the means of region wide unity and growth. I think that if the Euro were doomed, that the recent period would have been its demise. Now that it is rising, and I believe will continue to rise as the growth differential swings in Europe's favor, the criticism of it will wane. The growth potential in Europe is far greater than that of the United States. As their unemployment rate declines it will put more money in the hands of consumers and will result in a virtuous cycle similar to that recently experience in the US. America, on the other hand, will grow solely by productivity gains as there is little room for growth by adding to the workforce. This greater growth potential in Europe will mean that it will attract a greater proportion of investment, as growing areas always do. The currency flow will be toward Europe, rather than away from it, which will further bolster the currency and provide capital for the growth. The United States will focus more on trading partners in their own hemisphere and the dollar will weaken and the trade deficit narrow. I'm predicting that the Euro and the dollar will become the world's two major currencies in the coming years. I think the relationship between the two has been skewed by speculation and an unsustainable level of growth in US consumer spending fueled by an equity bubble. In the years to come, I think a rate of 1.2 to 1.3 $US per Euro will be reached.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2704)	12/26/2000 1:51:19 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3536

Never heard them referred to as "Cargo Cults", but I recall reading about tribes in New Guinea who worshiped the planes that flew overhead and were occasionally shot down in their midst. And I've heard the rebels on Guadalcanal were supposedly tapping into munitions and assorted goodies left over from WWII to wage some of their attacks (very dangerous, of course, given the instability of the ammunition and explosives they glean from dud munitions). The way I'm looking at Europe is similar to early American history, in which the 13 colonies created the Articles of Confederation which provided maximum freedom for the respective rights of each (weak central government). It only required some 6 years before they realized the folly of such a system, where national policies are formed by unanimous consent, thus guaranteeing that NO decisions were arrived at, or maximum ineffectiveness written into the policies. Thus, we arrived at the realization that only Federal form of government would ensure that we spoke with one voice with regard to foreign policy and that all states were mutually bound to the same interstate trade standards. Fortunately for the 13 colonies, their people enjoyed a common origin and heritage overall and spoke the same language. But with Europe, I don't see how such a group of disparate national entities, speaking different languages, sharing long held historical rivalries and animosities can suddenly claim they are united in purpose, economically and politically, while still jockeying with each other for political pre-dominance within the EEC, simply defies logic. We see the example of Quebec demanding their special status within the Canadian confederacy growing stronger every year without suffering the baggage of historical warfare between the two. Thus, I can hardly believe Europe can muster the force of will that would permit them to unify without suffering through a similar "head-knocking" as the US suffered as a result of the Civil War. European Civil War? As the economic pressures mount, I can see the potential for one breaking out 10-20 years from now. Either that, or I can see the creation of a hostile foreign policy that would act to unify the continent in a "us vs them" mindset. And I can see the European "elites" working toward such an end should it prove the final option to avoid a breakdown of the EEC concept. Bottom line, imo, is that Europe lacks a sense of being European, comparable to that of the US immigrant "melting pot". Of course, they could continue supporting this concept of "multi-culturalism" and hyphenated citizenship (Mexican-American, African-American, Asian-American.. etc) and try to subvert our own system. But again, that takes us back to the problem that Europe faces, namely having to inhibit the progress of its competitors rather than internally changing the way they operate. Good discussion we have going on here... As always, I greatly appreciate your views. Regards, Ron