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To: Stephen Krupa who wrote (7192)12/26/2000 6:35:23 PM
From: James Strauss  Respond to of 13094
 
But Greenspan knows the politics of D.C. He'll go along, as some analysts have stated. If not, he'll be into retirement sooner than he may have planned; who's his boss?

Good points Steve but Greenspan still has about five years to go on his current term... After that he'll probably retire... So, I think he'll continue doing what he thinks is right... Large tax cuts and rate cuts usually don't mix if you if you have inflation concerns...

One could argue that the FED doesn't have inflation concerns at this time... They have economy weakness concerns... What better way to goose the economic fires than fire salvos of Big tax cuts and Interest Rate cuts into the economy's furnace...

The only hitch is, will the surplus to pay for the tax cut be there if Federal revenues drop in a recessionary period... If that happens, the government will be forced to borrow... That unexpected increase in borrowing could put upward pressure on interest rates...

To me the fastest injection of chicken soup for the economy would be to let the FED do their thing (cut rates), without the threat of a large tax cut hanging over their decision making process... That would give the stock market a boost and add liquidity to the markets for capital expenditures for companies to grow without squeezing the credit markets which would force up interest rates... Companies would grow... Deals would be done, and people would have their jobs... Then, sometime in the middle of the year, a modest, non FED threatening tax cut, would benefit an economy coming out of a soft recession landing... In the end, we'd have lower interest rates, a modest tax cut, continued budget surpluses, and most importantly, a minimum amount of job losses...

Jim