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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (27249)	12/26/2000 7:46:22 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Voltaire: The Houses will have to start moving things up because of upward pressure So, true...often after downward pressure forces them to move things down, the upward pressure will force them to move things up. No one is more liable to mistakes than he who acts only on reflection As I reflect on that, I think of he who ignores history fails to learn from it...one must drive with eyes trained forward, but don't forget to check the rearview mirror regularly...<g> THE COMING ASCENDING SCALE I was thinking of how the time compression capsules were so quickly followed by the expansion of the compressed time capsules forcing a descending regression scale. Are you expecting that the expanding compressed time capsules will began to reverse cycle and once again begin to compress forcing an ascending scale? Do you expect this to occur in a linear or non-linear expansion plane? Regards, LG

To: Voltaire who wrote (27249)	12/27/2000 12:26:37 AM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

IF THE FED REDUCES RATES IN JAN. AND INTIMATES FURTHER CUTS, DON'T COUNT ON PULLBACK IN MARKETS. Why? It is my understanding that typically markets keep falling after the first rate cut. Although, I firmly feel we are in unchartered waters given how big this bubble still is (biggest in history still), so therefore anything is possible. Are you suggesting "it is different this time"? I expect anything going forward, I believe all the speculative money has to be wiped out before a bottom is found meaning there will be many failed rallies trapping ClownBux before all is said and done. We will reach bottom when there isn't money that wants to buy the dip for months, and we go sideways for a period of time and people give up, then we go up. That said, this is a traders market. I only feel comfortable playing with a small percentage of my money and only to the short side for now. I'm looking at a few longs looking to run front month calls only as a hedge, but betting down is still the best bet IMHO and I don't like to hold longs overnight for fear of REAL capitulation.

To: Voltaire who wrote (27249)	12/27/2000 9:04:43 AM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Hope your right Volts, but it seems more and more folks are turning bearish....if they aint got the balls to go short, they are at least converting to cash...something I wish I had done about a dozen different times this year. Maybe it's a good contrarian indicator maybe not....but I do see our time capsul getting shorter and shorter, and all the while tech stocks keep going lower and lower..... I look back to this time last year and am amazed at how much things have changed......it's gonna be awhile before techs get over this wreck. Too many people trade eloctronically now and it's too damn easy for every tom, dick and harry to hit the buy or sel button. Additionally, this wreck has taught me that folks will now listen to the old mantra "take those small profits and run"....as evidenced by my selling of part of my sndk yesterday.....I had bought more at $30, thinking "what a deal.....long term buy for me"......well, after watching it go back to 435 and then go weak, I sat here and thought how many times this year I watched a profit turn into a loss and NEVER regain. I love sndk, but didnt want to watch another gain turn to a loss, so I took my two points and ran. My goal was to hold the stock as i feel it is way oversold, a terrific value and a hot sector that will only get hotter. However, this market has proven that it doesnt matter if your a dot.com a big hairy "real gorilla"...an up and coming gorilla....a true value play, or whatever......down, down down, has been the key words for the year and i dont see what will change that. Folks are so gun shy now they will sell like hell into any rally. Just look at the sentiment on this thread alone. Most Bulls have gone to cash, or are shorting or are now only trading the volatility and then going back to cash. I dont see a few rate cuts as enough to turn the naz around for good...and when I mean for good, I simply mean an actual sustained bull rally. Anyway, glad your optimistic, but sheez, Volty, you've been optimistic all year, constantly calling a final bottom, only to watch us keep going lower. I hope your right this time, but it is disconcerting to me seeing us heading in to january at such dismal pricing in the tech sector, while we are now looking at typically the worst part of the year coming up in only a month.....how many folks said they will be out of market from Feb - end of october?......will folks still convert to cash under the current circumstances?? Man, it amazes me how much things can change in such a short period....this hasnt been just a dot.com bubble....my jdsu and other solid companies have hurt me as much as the dot.coms keith....hoping for a better year ahead, but really beginning to believe the naz is dead for awhile. Keith