To: adcpres who wrote (39533 ) 12/28/2000 6:12:06 PM From: donald sew Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 42787 DEC 28 INDEX UPDATE ----------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL SIGNAL SPX - CLASS 2 SELL SIGNAL OEX - OVERBOUGHT REGION NAZ - OVERBOUGHT REGION NDX - OVERBOUGHT REGION VIX - 30.15, OVERSOLD REGION(inverse to market) CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .60 5-DAY TRIN - 4.28 Per my short-term technicals the overall market is in the OVERBOUGHT/CLASS SELL TERRITORY. If the market continues up I should be getting CLASS 1 and CLASS 2 SELL signal for the major indices tomorrow, with the WINDOW until next TUE's HIGHs. The 5-DAY TRIN is approaching sell territory(below 4.00) and the VIX is nearing the extremes per my short-term technicals so they are also lining up with the readings on the indices. The RUT made a clear HIGHER HIGH while the NAZ/NDX was flat/down for most of the day. The NAZ BIG CAPs were being sold today, while the SMALL/MID-CAPs were being bought. I consider that as a positive for the HiTECHs overall in that a significant/mid-term bottom was set in the NAZ. Im not saying that it is the MAIN BOTTOM, just that a significant bottom is being set for a significant rally. Also the NAZ NEW LOWs broke below 300 and the NAZ NEW HIGHs have consistently improved. Another positive that should support a significant bottom. In light of the above I feel that the this forthcoming pullback in the NAZ/NDX that could start early next week(TUE/WED) should be bought. I am suspecting that this forthcoming pullback should not be that strong and could set a HIGHER LOW. Although the DOW has been stronger than the NAZ recently, I cannot ignore the possibility that if the NAZ/NDX rallys nicely, it may be at the expense of the DOW where the DOW may start to lag the NAZ or even decline(sector rotation). As optimistic as this post sounds, there is still an important worry and that is the US DOLLAR. In the past I mention that the trendline from the 1999 lows was around 112, and the US DOLLAR has clearly broke below that line, implying that the trend may be changing for the DOLLAR, which is a significant negative for the market. In light of this, I would not get overly bullish until the DOLLAR can reverse its trend back upwards. I will be closing some of my LONG positions(UOPIX) if the NDX is up nicely tomorrow. However, I will not play the short-side, but will just prepare myself to buy the forthcoming pullback. Happy NEW YEAR!!!!