To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2767 ) 12/28/2000 9:49:44 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 3536 People have short memories, until the consumer confidence index drops back well under 100 (it used to hover for a long time in the 70), the consumer is still overconfident. I do not expect a recession, just getting back to the norm. It is only people that forgot to see when the time were good, playing musical chairs and hoping someone else will be left without a chair, the great majority of pension funds are in S&P 500 and similar index funds, and even then, at an allocation of 40% to 60%, not real pain out there in the country. That is why the confidence index is still above 120%, people have jobs, they command high pay, the few that lose their jobs can easily find new one. Unemployment is essentially at an all time low, why the panic? If the Fed's panic, then we'll have real trouble, because we will reignite that crazy horse the naz, and before you know it, JNPR and the like will be selling at $500/share... I am actually quite happy the bubble on the net burst, now I can finally talk to VC's about real businesses I am helping start. In 1998 to early 2000, if you did not have a ".com" in your name, they would not even see you. You realize that in November, $28 Billion flowed into VC coffers? Money is not tight or wanting, cuts in rates are not what is required right now, just "cool heads" and not a Pres that is putting the fear of a non existent recession in the people's mind, thus undermining that consumer confidence. Why are Cheney/Bush doing such a stupid thing? I can understand Bush, he is not too smart, but Cheney? We have a bear market simply because we had great excess valuation and we are slowly and in a orderly fashion (everyone lose some) readjusting valuations. I suggested that we will have this bear market last April, and thus am not surprised at all (well, I thought that after the late May low, which was also suggested in that same April post, we may get another run for the 5000 on the naz, I missed this one <g>). Just relax, wait for a good intermediate bottom in late February early March, then, enjoy the ensuing rally. Don't enjoy it too much, since we are probably going into a protracted period of a wide "range bound " market (just waiting for earnings to catch up with still rich valuations). Zeev