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Strategies & Market Trends : Making Money is Main Objective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (152)	1/17/2001 2:10:13 PM
From: James1000	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 2155

Your certainly right about brokers being wrong. ASTX just totally bombed on its earnings estimates. 18 to 20 cents is their pre-announcement value vs a consensus of around 30 cents. Luckily its price is tied to its buyer, MKSI, which has a positive short-term earnings estimate trend as well as a nearly perfect teacup technical pattern. Despite the positive techs I just dumped ASTX at $15.68 which is good since I bought it last month at around $11. If MKSI can steady its next-year earnings trend I will consider buying them but I'd probably be better off looking for a new pick. This makes my current portfolio small with SPP AVNT ACTM CCRT SMRA. I guess I'll have to spend another few hundred hours sifting through hundreds of companies which gets pretty dull. The Zacks.com screener makes it a lot faster than otherwise though. Right now I'm margined at 18%. Since I'm very concerned about the general direction of the stock market over the next year or two I may keep my portfolio as it is though. I think starting today I'll margin 60% when I'm bullish, 40% when I think the market will be flat, and 20% if I'm bearish. I hope you kept an eye on AVNT because you really missed on some big gains if you didn't. As a matter of fact all my picks have done outstanding with a 90% gain on my portfolio since May 31 of last year and a success rate of 6 of 7 since that date. I'm sure a lot of the gain is luck but I sure am happy about it :) The stock market is really scaring me right now. Earnings are going down the toilet yet the stock market is behaving like it did back in the bubble days. I think it could lead to a real CRASH. The Nasdaq and Dow could easily both dump more than 50% of their current value over the next couple years. Long-term I expect a positive market until around 2009. I also suspect that around this point the 0% savings of Americans will start to have a very negative effect. Combine this with the predicted wave of retirement and it could lead to a deep depression though its really way to early to tell.