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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2774)12/29/2000 8:41:19 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3536
 
Henry, because employment is a lagging indicator, I say they'll wait for 4.5%, if industry was more adept at cutting down employment on first sight of potential problems, that level would probably be in the 4.8% to 5%.

Zeev



To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2774)12/29/2000 12:30:41 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3536
 
Henry,

One reason that I think the Fed will be quicker to act is that the real Fed funds rate is too high. The FF less the core CPI is 4% and that is at least 100 bp too high for a "normal" growth rate. If we have a recession, I think the real FF rate will approach zero. The Fed has a long way to go and has every reason to start soon.


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