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To: Road Walker who wrote (17777)	12/29/2000 9:19:16 AM
From: JMD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

John, I'd like to hear your comments about "the time frame for internet enabled handsets to become popular" IF the SNDK thread thinks its relevant. Otherwise the discussion should probably transfer over to the Qualcomm Moderated Thread. My own view is that internet enabled handsets will deliver real value to the user, but only when data transmission speeds are several orders of magnitude higher than they are now. As you probably know, wireless data rates currently "zip" along at about 9.6K with an occasional burst to 14.4. At these speeds, the value of surfing the web is, for most people, non-existent. Add in the very inefficient/ugly "form factors", i.e., the cell phones' keyboards and displays, and you have the very definition of 'not ready for prime time', IMO. Even so, it is worth noting that SMS (Short Messaging Service) has taken off in Japan at rocket ship levels: particularly among teenagers who send millions of messages a day [so many in fact that Docomo's network has been brought to a halt several times in the recent past]. Evidently, no self-respecting Japanese 14 year-old would be caught dead without the ability to send "meet me at the mall" notes to his/her buddies. Nor is Japan alone in the use of SMS--the Europeans are sending short text messages to one another in significant volumes, and growth rates suggest the trend is well entrenched. This obviously speaks only to 'cell phones as data devices' rather than as 'web access devices' but the two are not dissimilar. Korea and Japan will launch high(er) speed wireless networks in 2001. My guess is that we will get a very good hint at whether/if all those billions that carriers have paid for spectrum was money well spent by year-end 2001. In the US, I'd guess the CDMA networks will begin their upgrades towards the end of 2001, with continuing roll-outs over the following two years. The bottom line? I'd say 2003/2004 before we have Megabit wireless data receive/transmit capability reasonably well deployed. And at that point, cell phones will have far more efficient I/O designs, which is when I think everybody and their brother will want to upgrade. What's your crystal ball say? Mike Doyle