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To: Eric L who wrote (37153)	12/29/2000 10:10:06 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Eric L: Excellent and well structured analysis. Your use of "general deployment" as a proxy for the data tornado is particularly useful conceptually IMO. Looking at current spectrum, I am struck by your comment that: "1xEV remains a wild card..." Seems like progress on 1xEV (both DO and DV) deserve focus - both in the standards arenas and on the ground. What happens in China in 2001 would also seem important. Thanks for the comprehensiveness and clarity of your post. Best as always. Cha2

To: Eric L who wrote (37153)	12/29/2000 12:54:55 PM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

When do you project that CDMA will be the dominant wireless radio interface? Well it's hard to say, it depends on how successful DOCOMO's wcdma launch will be and whether or not the Koreans delay their wcdma rollout. If I had to pick a date and go out on the limb,assuming the Koreans stay on schedule and Docomo is as successful as the original i-mode launch, I would say end of 03 to mid 04. I'm also basing my guess on the fact that IJ has stated that the 2nd billion wireless phones will be CDMA dominated as vs the 1st billion which will be GSM dominated. Since the 1st billion will be reached sometime within the next 18 months according to NOK then CDMA's domination of new subscribers begins somewhere around mid 02. I am also expecting a mad rush of subscriers switching to high speed wireless services which will be CDMA of one flavor or another. So I think the 2nd billion phones will come much faster then we think and with it cdma domination.That's why I think Docomo's WCDMA launch being successful is crucial to Q, unlike alot of other people who want DOCOMO to fall on their face. If the demand for WCDMA is there I think you will see alot of other carriers getting more aggressive in thier WCDMA rollout schedules which brings money into Q sooner then later. 100 PS: If China goes back to the dark side then all bets are off.