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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (83065)	12/29/2000 4:54:37 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

It is very gratifying to be more or less correct about a number of things recently (after being terribly wrong about others for a long time). I keep examining both my own feelings and the tone of this thread to try to guard against euphoria, which is my own downfall. But when I go over various figures, it is hard to see that unless consumption of natural gas is reduced in the United States to what it was two years ago, prices are going to stay quite high. I hear commentators venturing what they consider to be somewhat reckless guesses that NG will average $4-5 over the next year. I think the analogy must be with oil prices and with other financial markets. I believe that I am somewhere on record on SI as suggesting that natural gas prices could hit $10 this winter, and exhilarated with that prediction, I predict that they will be just as high next winter and that I would be quite surprised to see them drop below $7.00 over the summer. Pipeline companies will be trying to refill all that depeleted storage. New electrical generators will be coming on line. Last summer was actually cooler than usual in much of the country. I therefore believe that the returns on the gas royalty trusts that I hold will be very high. I think that there may be many more takeovers of small gas producers, such as the one aimed at Berkley the other day. There are some things that seem so insanely obvious that it makes me wonder if I am living in a fantasy land. For example, the SMOP perpetual warrants that sell for hardly more than their current intrinsic value based on the guaranteed takeover price of the company. I feel the way my mother did when she was a little girl and found that for some reason the floor of the bus she was riding was littered with (then silver) quarters.