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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: 100cfm who wrote (37193)12/30/2000 9:49:45 AM
From: DownSouth  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 54805
 
(Nice find, century man.)

On another subject:
I just updated my portfolio numbers to see what the year has finally wrought. No use in giving the gory details. Most all of us share the same saddening losses for the year, if we are LTBH and NASDAQ heavy.

The good news is that I am making money in my new business, and enjoying the hell out of it. So my plight is not worthy of your sympathy or my own tears.

The real question for me is "will the gorilla game, as I play it, be a winning game in the long run?"

I honestly don't know what the answer is, nor do I have an alternative to the game. Market timing is not one of my instincts. I have proven that in years past. Options are too much like the craps table for me.

I guess another question for me to ask myself is "should I be seriously considering changes in my investment strategy based on what happened (to my portfolio) in 2000?"

I shall ponder, and prepare to recompute my "substantially equal distributions" for 2001, set up my new QuickBooks payroll system, and thank God for the truly wonderful gifts given to me, my family, and y'all.

Happy new year, friends.



To: 100cfm who wrote (37193)12/30/2000 11:00:34 AM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
100,

<< Putting the C in TDMA? >>

You and I have dialogued on the Betsy Harter article already.

I wouldn't worry too much about Not Too Cool Woo's comments about royalties.

Sounds like his emotions got the better of him after QUALCOMM's very timely and very appropriate ("way cool") press release.

As for references to Qualcomm spin, not too worry either ... it's patent protected.

You may be interested in the following press release out of Bellevue.

The UWCC has been VERY quiet since AWS announced their "technology flip".

This is their first reactionary press release.

I have bolded the items that I find significant (because they represent a change in public UWCC thinking).

I might add that although the release suggests ongoing support for IS-136 TDMA, I think that is smoke. That smoke won't clear until Cingular and BellSouth International figure out what the heck to do with the network mess they are in.

IS-136 TDMA is Toast!

I think TDMA-EDGE will go away (but GSM-EDGE may well survive and flourish). JMO.

>> UWCC Endorses Multiple Third Generation Technologies For Deploying Wireless Services

Bellevue, WA
December 19, 2000

tdma-edge.org

At its recent quarterly meeting, the Board of Governors for the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium (UWCC) unanimously voiced their continuing commitment to the development and deployment of TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access) and EDGE (Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution) wireless technologies. Following the meeting, Sheila Mickool, President & CEO of the UWCC, stated, "TDMA is the number one technology in the Western Hemisphere, is robust, and has expanded at a 78% growth rate during the past 12 months." She added, "EDGE continues to gain momentum as a spectrally efficient and cost-effective solution for providing Third Generation (3G) services to the mass market." UWCC Chairman of the Board, Umesh Amin, commented, "The UWCC Board member companies have a high degree of confidence in the near term growth of TDMA and its multiple implementation options for providing 3G services worldwide."

Furthermore, the UWCC Board of Governors officially announced the endorsement of UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System), also known as WCDMA (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access), as an additional 3G technology option for TDMA operators acquiring new spectrum.

This endorsement builds upon the current UWCC programs of interoperability and convergence with the GSM community. Ms. Mickool said, "Our support for UMTS is consistent with the UWCC’s goal for global seamless voice and data communications." She added, "The UWCC is a Market Representation Partner in the Third Generation Partnership Program (3GPP) where both UMTS and EDGE are being standardized on the same core network." The convergence of TDMA and GSM Third Generation (3G) data strategies could provide global wireless Internet services to over 450 million subscribers worldwide.

Several UWCC Board members expressed their support for TDMA’s continued evolution through multiple technology paths. Rod Nelson, Chief Technology Officer for AT&T Wireless, participated in the Board meeting and defined his company’s clear commitment to TDMA, EDGE and the UWCC. He stated, "Maintaining the quality and capacity of our existing TDMA based services is our highest goal. Our choice to implement GPRS, EDGE and UMTS services we believe is consistent with the convergence strategy the UWCC has pursued for the past several years. Due to these activities, TDMA carriers have a robust path toward the future."

The initial deployments of EDGE systems are expected to begin in the 4th quarter of 2001 with large-scale deployments in 2002. Also attending the meeting, Hermon Pon, Chief Technology Officer, Wireless Internet, Nortel Networks, stated, "The evolutionary path for TDMA remains focused on interoperability and convergence with GSM. Given the global market dynamics and developments, options for TDMA operators’ data convergence with GSM are being expanded to not only include EDGE but also UMTS."

The UWCC will continue to provide marketing and technology support to the TDMA community. Amin commented, "The recent TDMA carrier announcements and the UWCC UMTS endorsement demonstrates that the UWCC’s programs and partnerships involving TDMA, GPRS, EDGE and UMTS technologies are leading the way to provide worldwide seamless voice and data communications." Amin continued, "Our working relationships with ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute), GSM Association, and the 3GPP, will intensify since they are ‘right on track’ with the goals of the TDMA community".

TDMA continues to be the number one technology choice in the Americas serving over 53.5 million subscribers worldwide at the end of the third quarter 2000. There were 24.1 million subscribers in Latin America at the end of third quarter, representing a 121% increase the past 12 months. Additionally, TDMA continues to be the leading technology in North America through the third quarter of 2000, where it recorded 27.3 million subscribers, representing a 61% increase over third quarter of 1999.

The UWCC is a Bellevue, Washington-based international consortium of more than 100 wireless carriers and vendors supporting the TDMA, EDGE, UMTS & WIN technology standards. The TDMA-EDGE ‘Taking Wireless Beyond the Call’ technology brand represents not only second generation enhanced services but also 3G compliant high-speed wireless data and Internet access technology to be available anytime, anywhere. For more information, visit the UWCC website at www.tdma-edge.org.

Board Members of the UWCC include: Alcatel USA, AT&T Wireless Services (USA), BellSouth Cellular Corp./Cingular Wireless (USA), BCP S.A. (Brazil), Cable and Wireless (United Kingdom), Cellcom (Israel), Celumovil (Colombia), Compaq Computer Corporation, Ericsson, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, Movilnet (Venezuela), Nokia, Nortel Networks, Rogers Wireless (Canada), SBC Wireless/Cingular Wireless (USA), Sony, Telecom Personal (Argentina), TeleCorp PCS (USA), Telefonica Unifon (Argentina), and VimpelCom (Russia). <<

Note: Take away AWS, Cingular, BellSouth International, and Cable & Wireless, and the Carrier base of TDMA is pretty darned small:

Algar Telecom Leste - ATL (Brazil)

Antel-Ancel (Uruguay)

AT&T Wireless Services Inc.

Bahamas Telecommunications Co.

Bakersfield Cellular (USA)

BellSouth Cellular Corp./Cingular Wireless

BellSouth Int'l Wireless Services

Bermuda Telephone Company Ltd

BSC de Panama (Panama)

Cable Anguilla

Cable & Wireless (UK, Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuba, Barbados, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Jamaica, Montserrat, Panama, Pakistan, St. Lucia, St.Kitts & Nevis, St.Vincent & the Grenadines, Turks & Caicos)

Cellcom Israel, Ltd.

Cellular One - Boston (USA)

Cellular One - Chicago (USA)

Cellular One - Indianapolis (USA)

Cellular One - San Francisco (USA)

Cellular One - Upstate New York (USA)

Cellular One - Washington/Baltimore (USA)

Celumovil

Cidcom Cellular (Chile)

Cincinnati Bell Wireless

Honolulu Cellular (USA)

Houston Cellular (USA)

Industar Digital PCS

LA Cellular (USA)

Midwest Wireless

Mobikom SDN BHD

Mobitel (PVT) Ltd.

Movilnet

North American Cellular Network

Rogers AT&T Wireless (Canada)

SBC Wireless/Cingular Wireless

TCO (Tele Centro Oeste Celular)

Telcel (Radiomovil)

Tele2000 (Peru)

Telecom Mobile Limited

Telecommunications Services of Trinidad and Tobago

TeleCorp (USA)

Telecorp PCS

Telefonica Celular - Celular CRT S.A.

Telefonica Movil (Chile)

Telefonica Unifon

Telemig Celular

VimpelCom

Western Wireless

- Eric -



To: 100cfm who wrote (37193)12/30/2000 11:30:27 AM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
100cfm: Re: Woo's statement that:

""All of the manufacturers I have talked to that are licensing the CDMA are telling us that it is absolutely false that they are paying royalties to Qualcomm for UMTS," Woo said."

Since no UMTS system is in commercial operation - i.e. earning money - no royalties to Qualcomm are due - yet.

Testing can be done without paying royalties. It is when the rubber hits the road that royalties begin.

The statement is literally true and completely misleading.

The license situation is a much better indicator of the need for royalties to the Q for UMTS than the current [lack of] cash payments.

Woo is whistling past the graveyard on this specific point.

(Although no one in his right mind would count AT&T out. The brand name and marketing clout and the "halo effect" of AT&T are powerful indeed. And the NTT connection with the i mode potential is a real competitive weapon - which may or may not turn out to be successful in the US)

Best.

Cha2