DS,
The real question for me is "will the gorilla game, as I play it, be a winning game in the long run?"
I think MANY people may be asking themselves the same question around now. My goodness, non GG'ers quite possibly more than us!
Not that my own analysis of 2000 or my reflections from being a Gorilla Game class of 2000 initiate were solicited, I never the less felt the urge to share my thoughts. In no particular order, they are:
The selection criteria that the GG outlines works in selecting outstanding companies to invest in. That said, VALUATION MATTERS. The great and growing companies we constantly discuss here may all be worthy. But, at certain times the market puts a premium on these companies that is TOO high for its current valuation. Looking at QCOM when it was in the 200 neighborhood is a prime example. Another key aspect of valuation that I constantly reflect upon was illustrated by Warren Buffet. Warren draws the example of investing $10,000 in MO at the high of the year versus the low. To quickly illustrate this point, he bought MO at $25 versus $20. The difference in the appreciation the 400 shares would return over a 10 year period versus the 500 shares you could've afforded by buying at $20 is quite significant.
The participants of this thread vary greatly in age, which is another major factor. The number of years an investor has to invest before needing to withdraw funds is quite important, just as having fresh funds to invest on a consistent basis is important. I for example, being 28, having recently bought a house, being a diligent saver, is looking at this Nasdaq correction with a bizarre sense of joy. My portfolio has been CREAMED this year. (See T, LU, and CMGI) However, I did sell some T and LU last December, as well as some other "stuff" to purchase a new home and make renovations. Thank goodness I was "forced" to sell some LU in the 70's.(It looks MUCH better as a new bathroom, all new windows and doors, etc, than as say, A new window, and A new door.<vbg>) The point of MY particular example is that each investor needs to look at where the market currently is, and seize the opportunity that is presented. Hindsight being wonderful, March would've been a good time to trim some. Now before someone jumps on me for discussing market timing <g>, the reverse is also true. My portfolio, MOST LIKELY, will never be this low again. I will continue to save, and now get more bang for market buck. So, actually, if the Nasdaq is going to have its worst year ever, why not be NOW when I have the least to lose, have non plans of withdrawing funds anyway, and am piling money into the market at my fastest clip ever?
OTHER THOUGHTS FROM A GRATEFUL GG FRESHMAN
* This board is terrific. I look forward to reading it every day.
* UF, Lindy, BB, Tekboy, DS, MB, and everyone else who posts, thank you for your time and energy. You all present information and perspectives that I would NEVER be able to reach on my own. (Some of the recent discussion on QCOM for example, is so far over my non-techy head, it is silly)
ONE SUGGESTION, and only one...
I'd really like to see some discussion, possibly on a weekly basis of current valuations of Gorillas and W&W stocks. Whether that be on a historical basis, or against some Foolish formula. Many people here, (me), invest regularly, and would like a better criteria for selecting the best "value" at the time. I currently own many of the stocks discussed here, and have a decision to face almost every week: Which one to buy this week? BB has made several/many arguments for and against SEBL at certain prices. Something along those lines, if the thread felt it was a valuable addition, may help the overall returns of an individuals portfolio over the long run. I am not a big fan of BLIND dollar cost averaging. Putting my money into the market consistently is my goal, not just adding shares of my favorite stock, ignoring its current price. Just my $0.02
I have had a wonderful year 2000. Business is good, I have 2 beautiful children, one just born, a terrific wife, and have found an investment strategy that I feel comfortable with for the Long haul.
Happy, healthy, and wealthy New Year to everyone,
Jason |
