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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (65543)	1/1/2001 12:54:56 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending 12/12/00, 12/19/00 and 12/26/00 for the S&P 500 Futures Commercial Hedger # of contracts long W/E 12/12/00 .... 344,281 # of contracts short W/E 12/12/00 ... 434,679 Net ................................ - 90,398 Commercial Hedger # of contracts long W/E 12/19/00 .... 312,399 # of contracts short W/E 12/19/00 ... 394,397 Net ................................ - 81,898 Commercial Hedger # of contracts long W/E 12/26/00 .... 316,384 # of contracts short W/E 12/26/00 ... 402,160 Net ................................ - 86,776 _________________________________________________ Small Trader # of contracts long W/E 12/12/00 .... 177,423 # of contracts short W/E 12/12/00 .... 96,790 Net ................................ + 80,633 Small Trader # of contracts long W/E 12/19/00 .... 123,550 # of contracts short W/E 12/19/00 .... 57,402 Net ................................ + 66,148 Small Trader # of contracts long W/E 12/26/00 .... 122,755 # of contracts short W/E 12/26/00 .... 54,948 Net ................................ + 67,807 _________________________________________________ Techplayer, my interpretation here is that the position of the 'commercials' is most important only in an overall sense. What I have learned from the 'commercial' positions of the past in commodities of all types, is that the worst damage (in this case to equities) will occur only as they seriously start to unwind their short positions, and by the time they are neutral, all the damage will have already been done ... in short, as hard as it is to believe, most of the serious damage is not done yet. The fact that the Small Traders have covered a significant amount of their short positions may actually be bearish for equities. What is your take on this? Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions. Ken Wilson