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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (37313)	1/1/2001 4:01:34 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Ben, "22.) W-CDMA is an open (committee based) standard. cdma2000 is perceived to be (is) an open but proprietary standard..." ---------- << In light of the scope of participation with 1xevdv specification development, does this really remain an accurate statement going forward? >> That is a very good question for this thread to consider. Through July of last year (and the publication of IS-2000A phase 0 rev 1a.(1xRTT phase 0), QUALCOMM has enjoyed almost complete architectural and standards control of cdmaOne and cdma2000 (which for all practical purposes constitutes 100% of CDMA commercially deployed in wireless mobile telephony in a voice-centric era. This (and the hypergrowth of CDMA for some 36 months from 1997 through the end of 1999) is the foundation of QUALCOMM's rare gorilla status, and they can now enjoy the benefits of CAP and GAP that carry over to the Main street of the first tornado they lived through and controlled. Soon we will enter a whole new generation of wireless technology. A new wireless data tornado will take place. It will be followed (12 to 18 months later) by the wireless multimedia tornsdo that will overlap the data tornado. One benefit of the first tornado (for QUALCOMM) is that CDMA will form the radio air interface foundation of the new tornados (or at least the second if not the first). With CDMA firmly entrenched (Hats off to Dr. Jacobs & Dr. Viterbi), it is natural that other market leaders will attempt to gain some control of the architecture and diminish QUALCOMM's control. To an increasing degree QUALCOMM is forced to work in committee, something they may be getting better at, but which is most certainly not their forte. From July 1999 till publication of the IS-2000A (R5a) in April QUALCOMM and CDG were in committee (with the OHG SDO's. Good experience and some UTRA elements worked into IS-2000A and will carry over to future revisions. QUALCOMM must now cooperate with Ericsson, Motorola, and Nokia all of whom want a piece of the architectural control component. 1xEV-DO is probably a lot QCOM and a little Ericsson. The final shape of 1XEV-DV is somewhat uncertain is it not? [You have followed this closer and better than anyone so I would appreciate your comments on this]. I certainly think QUALCOMM will hold its own in controlling 1xEV-DV and the final result will be essentially (if not completely) a QUALCOMM controlled product. In a general sense, I think that it is somewhat innevitable that a gorilla must give up some of his power to others as the enabling technology he controls becomes increasingly entrenched in the fabric of the technology that evolves. << Do you perceive any possibility that current committee based participation with 1xevdv in 3GPP2 might be part of a larger reciprocal agreement with associated 3GPP members that insures Q participation in HSPDA specification development after CDG becomes a 3GPP MRP? >> I think this is entirely possible. QUALCOMM is pretty sage. I must say that I'm not to hip on HSPDA. HSPDA seems to be Motorola and Nokia driven. I am wondering if the Ericsson "4G" initiative referenced below might not include HSPDA or be an alternative to it: Message 14525824 Do you have any feeling for that? I know your new diligence is in early stages. - Eric -