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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (15698)	1/2/2001 4:35:21 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 24042

The key is that the rumor is not just for JDSU, others fiberoptic companies in Silicon Valley also did the same things, rumor said. that is a warning sign for a hot hot industry. In hindsight, the warning was probably a few months ago. I don't know if a slowdown in orders will be any surprise to the market. I would bet that if Cisco was to warn on the downside (by about 3 to 5%---it would not affect the stock) Right now it just looks like confirmation of what people had thought--spending slowdown. I have yet to see any warning from a optical components company. I guess it will remain a rumor until we see the first earnings report (or profit warning). There is the trend to outsourcing that is likely to accelerate if there is a slowdown. That is the one thing that sets apart JDSU, GLW in optical. The outsourcing can only increase in order to save costs. If JDSU did shut down for a week, it may be just maintain good lead times---just guessing. The other thing to remember is that Corvis, Sycamore, Ciena, NT have not stated that business is slowing down. If they report in line and keep their current targets for 2001 intact, we could see big reversals for a lot of these stocks. Right now the real problem with JDSU and other stocks in the Naz is negative momentum. How will it stop? I see it coming to an end this week as soon as we get a couple of good rallies and a few positive earnings reports next week.

To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (15698)	1/2/2001 4:37:35 PM
From: OWN STOCK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Andy: You are missing the big indicators: Internally: the quarter is in the bag, and customer backlogs are over two years at present production rates, and demand is increasing...Externally: Broadband and optical switching is finally starting to rollout into the field...conclusion: demand driven market will remain for the forseeable future...nobody who knows about this market will be doing anything but buying SDLI/JDSU and holding...if we are lucky, and the MARKET FLU abates in June, then we will be fantastically wealthy...otherwise, we will have to settle for plain wealthy... -Own