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To: Walter Xie who wrote (8348)	1/2/2001 9:44:28 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13572

I Just did a valuation check on JNPR, CSCO, SEBL, NTAP, and EMC based on 5 yr % gwr. If the market wants stocks to trade at something less then 2 times say around 1.5 times 5 yr % gwr, then CSCO and JNPR both need to be 20 or so, SEBL and EMC 30's, and NTAP 25 or so. Still tons of downside if Mr. Market feels the need to correct to 1 to 2 times earnings. You have to remember I'm using three month old 5 yr numbers too. MSFT is at around 1.7 now, the question is, what premium will the market award CSCO as compared to MSFT? A higher one in my book. I think the key to trying to understand the continuing market slide, is use CSCO as the Rosetta Stone, on the valuation front. So CSCO at 25 seems reasonable for a 1.86, that would be around an additional 20% drop. We have to wait till Feb for CSCO's earnings but we will get JNPR Jan 16th. The bulk of the earnings season is right in the middle of the month, after that we will have a good handle what the outlook will be then. So, If I was big time short, I would be thinking of covering sometime with in the next 7 to 10 days during the remaining warning season, unless of course I feel the world is ending. <g> Greg