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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LemonHead who wrote (14194)	1/3/2001 7:34:53 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi Keith, Regarding AIM btb and UOPIX, I'm not sure that AIM would have raised enough cash at the market top to handle the down stroke we've seen in this fund. It's now at only about 12% of its all time high price. A rough rule of thumb is that the price/share can drop in percentage about the same as the percentage of cash reserve and you'll run out at the bottom. I'm not sure we would have seen 88% Cash Reserve at the peak, so even btb would have burnt its cash too soon. I'm speculating here, I've not run the numbers yet. Best regards, Tom

To: LemonHead who wrote (14194)	1/3/2001 8:31:30 AM
From: Bernie Goldberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Keith, I didn't bother to to run the simulation on every stock I've got. I certainly would have been better off than I am now in the ones that I ran. For example I ran out of cash in the mid 50s on UOPIX. With AIM BTB I probably wouldn't have run out of powder until the mid 20s. If I had been able to buy shares at $30 less than my actual minimum I would be in a much stronger position than I am now. I do have AIM programs set up with AC, CEI, FLC, MRK, HR, HRP, and XLF that are all doing fine with plenty of dry powder. As a matter of fact I have an order in for MRK that when it trips at 95 1/2 will get my Cash Reserve right at 33%. I think Tom said that in March the IW was calling for a Cash Reserve of 60% with stocks. I don't think too many of us had that anything close to that number. In case I missed you HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! Hopefully this one will be better than last. Bernie in Gunnison Clear skies -15° F