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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (27993)	1/3/2001 1:15:40 AM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Perhaps it was just a head fake... LoF

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (27993)	1/3/2001 2:41:44 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

UF - I have been saying to Vol the following for some time ( I wish I followed the inevitable conclusions but hope got in the way):- 1. We have all of us severely underestimated the awful and historic scale of this crash. 2. Whatever it is is nowehere near over and can't be so long as:- 2.1 Mr Greenspan maintains interest rates at this level or anwhere near it and 2.2 Assuming no cut in rates, then the NAz can't possibly be higher today than it was in Dev 1998 when we were just in the middle of and awating a boom in the economy. We are in incipient recession which is showing all the signs of a major world recession and worse. 3. Mr Greenspan is going to teach us all a lesson we will never forget. He is out to destroy the Naz spirit and he won't give up. He has an irrational obsession with the Naz and will act to destroy the Naz no-matte what the cost, evem to the point of driving the US and the World economy into a brick wall. The Naz is the center, the nexus of his attention and nothing it seems wil distract him from this absurd urge to destroy a market. 4. Mr Hope and Mr Market will take all the gains people have madde in the Naz inth last two/three years and then some. 5. We are now in historic times. There is virtually no upside in any of our favorite Naz stocks but there is plenty of downside. Even if your stcoks don't get hit by the normal operation of the market, if you go to bed holding anything you run the risk of suffering a downgrade after hours or first thing in the morning and these days a downgrade, even a light one, means a cut in the stock price of at least 50%. 6. Not a single analyst or comentator says we have bottomed. All of them I have heard today say that there is more of this to go. I agree with that but at least I still have the hope that someone will make Mr Greenspan come back down to earth or get him to step aside if he can't control his obsession. It appears to me that there is a growing body of 'investors' that clear all their posisitons every afternoon and don't go home holding any stock at all. My view is that kind of strategy is going to cause us long term harm. It implies a fundamental and growing distrust of the market as a vehicle of investment. I don't believe you can have a market a large and growing percentage of which is occupied by 'traders'. Still hope is alive. Best regards, L