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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (83296)	1/3/2001 11:20:44 AM
From: excardog	Respond to of 95453

Here is some Pru stuff seemingly contradictory ie " we remain bullish" Chevron HOLD CHV: REDUCING CHV TO HOLD FROM ACCUMULATE BASED ON VALUATION. TARGET PRICE IS $85. CHV \| $84.44 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months. Conoco HOLD COC.A/B: REDUCING CONOCO A/B TO HOLD FROM STRONG BUY. TARGET PRICE IS $29. COC.A \| $28.63 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months. ExxonMobil HOLD XOM: REDUCING XOM TO HOLD FROM ACCUMULATE BASED ON VALUATION. TARGET PRICE IS $84. XOM \| $86.94 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months. USX - Marathon Group HOLD MRO: REDUCING MRO TO HOLD FROM ACCUMULATE BASED ON VALUATION. TARGET PRICE IS $29. MRO \| $27.75 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months. Phillips HOLD P: REDUCING PHILLIPS TO HOLD FROM STRONG BUY BASED ON VALUATION. TARGET PRICE IS $60. P \| $56.88 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months. Royal Dutch HOLD RD: REDUCING RD TO HOLD FROM ACCUMULATE BASED ON VALUATION. TARGET PRICE IS $61. RD \| $60.56 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months. Shell T&T HOLD SC: REDUCING SC TO HOLD FROM ACCUMULATE BASED ON VALUATION. TARGET PRICE IS $50. SC \| $49.38 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months. Texaco HOLD TX: REDUCING TX TO HOLD FROM STRONG BUY BASED ON VALUATION. TARGET PRICE IS $65. TX \| $62.13 \| NYSE The Major Oils have outperformed the market by 13 percentage points since mid December (Oils up 9%, S&P 500 down 4%). We remain bullish on the operating and earnings outlook for the sector. We continue to forecast that these key earnings and valuation drivers will average well above normal levels over the next 12-18 months.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (83296)	1/3/2001 11:25:07 AM
From: stsimon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

There are a lot of investors who have yet to raise money for their tax bills. While many tech insiders took a beating selling stock way off the highs, in many cases their cost basis was even lower. The potential for yet another, and perhaps final leg down in this bear market may well occur late March or early April as even more stock gets sold to pay taxes.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (83296)	1/3/2001 1:21:07 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

JimL; XTO -13%, RRC -10%, ROIL - 10%, DNR - 7% CHK CRK EPEX FST KP MHR PXD ... all thread fav's. ... and plenty of posters here certainly own EOG NBL APA APC - especially with the UPR roll up. Thread fav's are getting decimated along with all things Gas. Actually imho; the thread fav's are obviouslly getting hit harder than the indices are... PS; anyone want to fess up to how much in the red they are on all those SMOP warrants - ? please... Yes; I am obviously being a "little extreme" - but; for good reason.... This wasn't even a difficult call & I stated numerous reasons why. 1. That much selling would occur immediately due to merely postponed tax consequences. 2. That it was hot/temporary momenteum money that created the last move up here and you sell their entries allways. 3. Most importantly & FUNDAMENTALLY for Kollmnh; that no one with a clue; would be paying more for NG E&P's here shortly as their earnings most obviously have FUNDAMENTALLY peaked if not with this Q4 report, with the coming Q1 report and that the Street FUNDAMENTALLY most certainly is looking at least 6 mos out in valuing these stocks today. 4. Technicals said sell me - take profits 5. The "JQP/thread hystrionic-cheerleading sentiment meter" - literally, in all seriousness - the single most accurate "sell" indicator known to man...was signaling not only take profits, but short me...make me feel pain, spank me hard (VBG) ~ PS: I allways have tipped the hat to those little things that I pick up from others. So a tip of the hat to Isopatch; for commenting a while back about not publically posting his sell stops etc... as there are many, many fund managers & hedge fund traders who make this thread among their first stops to check this sectors market sentiment & gleen an occassional gem, or two in this - the best "Window to the frontline Oilpatch investor on the entire net... obviously this is "THE" Oilpatch thread.... So Iso; I learned something from you.... don't post your "sell stops" and accordingly don't publically tip when you're shorting either (vbg) ~ ie: let 'em think they've got some time to get out ~ "Q" you're bleeding so bad on MAX MARGIN here; you're going to have to be wearing "Maxi-Pads" for months ~ So; do you cheerleaders sell on this 10-20% pullback, buy more; or sit like Deer in Headlights" for the rest of the fall ? Does the phrase - "give it all right back, once again" - ring a bell ? Cold, cruel ? No; merely a very, very OBVIOUS & FUNDAMENTAL of all FUNDAMENTAL PROFIT TAKING OPPS IN THIS ENTIRE CYCLE - that this entire damn thread - blew. So I reiterate my rating.... this thread get's a D- on this Nat Gas move. Blind Bullishness; no thinking outside the box, no thinking like a seller, no exit stragegies, just snowblind cheerleading and the usual MAX MARGIN Bull$hit... ... some things never change. .... now part deux - THE FED CUT ~ & the FED TRAP. I'm going to set back & see how the cheerleaders play this one.