Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (37472)	1/3/2001 3:30:31 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, Re: QCOM - The "Subscriber Metric" used to track Growth Let me call your attention to an important post on MQ thread made by Honorary Gorilla Gamer Benjamin Garrett: Message 15115958 This SSB report on wireless is important because it does a very nice job discussing the difficulty of relying on and making forecasts in the wireless industry using either The "Subscriber Metric" or the "Handset Sales Metric", and other issues related to uncertainty in the wireless industry (positive or negative and right now more positive than negative). I'm sure I have confused 100cfm and others when I refer to subscriber forecasts and make value judgements about them without going into a lot of detail about how to deal with them. It's sort of like "P/E". Your data feed and how you double check calculations has a lot to do with how you deal with them. I thought I'd call your attention to this because I'll be posting frequently on forecasts of subscriber growth past, present and future, as year ending numbers come in, and new forecasts from research agencies become available or are updated. - Eric -

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (37472)	1/3/2001 3:48:10 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Re: QCOM - Thoughts from SSB - More Wireless Multimedia Tornado Warning Same Link as prior Post: Message 15115958 >> QUALCOMM In our view, QUALCOMM remains extremely well positioned to benefit from strong CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) growth as all roads in 3G are CDMA paved. The momentum and news flow for QUALCOMM, including CDMAOne deployment in China, relative strength in South Korea, 1XRTT deployments and chip shipments, a strong patent portfolio, and the upcoming IPO of its ASIC business are favorable, a trend we believe is likely to continue. Thus, we rate the stock 1H (Buy, High Risk) on the strength of its solid long-term outlook. [Note: SSB is advising OUTPERFORM, Medium Risk on NOK, ERICY, MOT] <snip> 1XRTT deployments will be limited to South Korea in the first half of 2001 while the U.S. and Japan are expected to deploy commercial service in the second half of the year. We feel significant handset volumes are unlikely before the second half of 2001. Samsung is currently the only manufacturer to announce a 1X phone, although we believe there are currently over a dozen 1X phone designs. The relative lack of "new technology" phones, combined with some subscriber growth pressure in the highly penetrated Western European market, causes us some concern over handset sales. << Also on the 3G Multimedia Tornado >> January 3, 2001 SUMMARY As we published yesterday, we are bullish on wless infra mkt driven by capacity & 3G spending & believe timing of 3G deployments is greatest risk. * In our view, 3G should not represent majority of revs for vdrs until 03/04 as 2G spending remains robust & possible 3G delays push out sales. [This is pretty much what I have been trying to express (U 2 if I read U correctly), and so far as I can tell is industry consensus] * News article today suggesting Korea Telecom, Korea's 2nd largest mobile operator, could push out commercial launch past its May 02 target, is evidence of the timing risk we discuss in our 2001 wireless equipment thesis (See our Note of 1/2/01). SK Telecom is sticking by its May 02 goal. * We believe 2G capacity driven spending will represent majority of revs in 01 and 02 while 3G should add to sales & is unlikely to represent majority of infra revs until late 03/early 04. * Our full 200 page report, Global Wireless Equipment Investor "2001 3G Odyssey" should be available within a week. << ---------- by SSB ---------- - Eric -