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To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/4/2001 1:02:44 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I think the situations were quite diferent. However the fact is the broader US market is still fairly robust. In actuality only the tech sector is getting killed.

To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/4/2001 1:13:11 AM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

BC, I like your analysis a lot and consider you one of the most knowledgable posters on SI, but was stunned at where you think the Naz will bottom. Has your analysis changed? [I believe you were calling for a bottom at 2200?] chic

To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/4/2001 8:43:54 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 436258

Yes, I am surprised by the rapidity of the breakdown. I keep going back to the same old argument, one that is put more eloquently by PruBear and others. The problem with trying to prevent a hard landing (and make no mistake, we are not trying to get the economy going from a standstill here) is that the new liquidity has to find its way efficiently to where it is needed. This will not happen because of the casino mentality that is prevalent from J6P all the way up to the CEO's. (By the way, did we nail this NAZ wave count or what!)

To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/4/2001 9:07:12 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 436258

BC, I have a variety of near big tests that I'll be watching if this rally gets legs. The first is smelly -- will it climb back into that price channel i have posted many times? Another is CSCO. it actually broke down through its 10 year price channel -- the only issue/index of importance to do so. It closed just under it yesterday and I am wondering how easily it will be for it to climb back over it?

To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/4/2001 9:21:21 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<Anyone know how quickly the Japanese economy deteriorated in the 1990s? Are we beating them? > Good question... I do remember Americans thinking that all would be OK there because they were 'different' and the envy of the world... don't know what was going on in Japan. Foreigners may hold part of the key here... and I'm not so sure what they will be thinking. DAK

To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/4/2001 9:49:26 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

CSCO has broken above that 10 year old line, for now.

To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/4/2001 9:37:26 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Respond to of 436258

bobcor, There are fundamental differences between the American and Japanese cultures that affect their relative economies and would lead me to think that the USA will not see the 1990 Nikkei pattern and subsequent decline. The Japanese run an incredible public spending government where full life employment, "social welfare via business", is mandated. The concept of humble failure, saving face, and to this day, total denial of their aggressions during WW II, means they can never admit that their economy is in shambles. It's not likely to get any better without drastic action, which they may be incapable of. Government debt is huge, and that 20% saving rate among the populace may be tapped even more to deal with it. I hope they find the courage to turn their ship around. Americans, on the other hand, are just motivated by money. Whatever will derive that buck, we'll do, on any level. So, while our budget remains balanced (although not really with SS) and debt is being repaid, our long term economy should remain sound, with the business cycle fully intact. Bubbles have been popped and mature markets created, yet our economy rumbled along, always innovating and creating new opportunities and markets where none existed before. There will be periods of pain, but we won't experience 10 years of recession and no growth like Japan has in the 1990's, IMHO. Cheers, Tom

To: Perspective who wrote (53861)	1/5/2001 12:49:03 PM
From: Mahatmabenfoo	Respond to of 436258

> Of course, if this more closely resembles the 1930s, then > the Fed is far the pattern after the crash of 1929 was the slow rise of 1930... right up until around April, when the market as a whole had regained about 2/3rds of its pre-crash value. Some stocks remained completely killed (like investment trusts then, kinda like internet incubators now) but on the whole things looked pretty good. But starting in April, the real death happened. The market went down -- relentlessly, slowly, undramatically, week after week after week for something like 3 years. By the time the market hit its low, the values at the time of the '29 crash looked pretty good in comparison, and the "buy on dips" sentiment (which was as alive in 1929 as it had been in 1999) was gone for a generation. Which is not to say the same will happen now. Another interesting parallel is between 1929 and 1987 -- in both cases, there was that 2/3 recovery between the autumn crash and April, only in April 1987 it was not followed by a relentless decline. > we must remember that history doesn't repeat, but only rhyme. Very lovely phrase crafting <doffing my cap in admiration> - Charles