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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (11712)	1/4/2001 1:02:59 PM
From: Ryan Hess	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79003

<<Actually my point was to avoid the situation...and any other where regulators have profitability by the gonads.>> I understand your point. But I missed buying MO at 18. That was a good bet, even if it just stayed there because of the dividend. If you can buy EIX at 50 cents or $2 or whatever, and you see EME trade as a public company after a spin off (I have no idea how likely that is) what if they subsequently receive a valuation multiple similar to CPN?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (11712)	11/29/2001 1:44:57 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 79003

Despite aversion to situations involving exposure to regulators, I started a small position in CPN after listening to CC [Long, but informative]. I came away assured that: Net exposure to ENE is immaterial, Other that operating leases, there aren't off balance sheet debts. On the regulatory issue: Calif. is a loony bin, but they appear to view CPN as more part of solution than part of problem. CPN is expected to earn 2.60 so selling for <9x 02....with a 5 year growth est of 30%. They indicated that hedging has made their exposure to energy price fluctuations immaterial. EV/EBITDA ~5.2 @22.8 ttm EBITDA. I felt adding operating leases to EV wouldn't be appropriate since the annual cost [lease payments] is factored into EBITDA [as expenses]...there are a chunk of them...a quick and dirty PV kicked up about 2.3$B...mostly on cogeneration plants.