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Pastimes : Astrological Influences: Financial and Global Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVC who wrote (457)	1/17/2001 2:58:10 PM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 538

I just received this email from an old friend, and this seems to be a good forum to post it to: Dear Friends, Something has gone very wrong. I am on two BB's for over 3 years (MTA & Longwaves), and they are both generally over 90% Bullish. NOW they are over 90% Bearish! Article titles are: RALLY OVER? BANKS AND THE COMING CREDIT CRUNCH and BANK STOCKS GET SOFT In the meantime, most traditional technical indicators are at the highest (most bullish) levels in the last 3-4 years, most of the negatives maximized on October 18 and December 21. Since those important lows, Advance-Decline Lines are up (+10,000 for the NYSE, +4300 on NASDAQ). Momentum studies are diverging madly and wholesale. New highs are advancing to 3-year highs. NEW LOWS are 7! For God's sake.... SEVEN!!!! THat's including all interest sensitives, all manufacturing, all service industries, all ADR's and all pfd stocks. That is NOT a Bear Market level. It is not even a Bear market RALLY level. These are BULL MARKET levels. Markets put out some very good numbers on this recent rally. Many short term indicators have become Overbought! The last 3-5 days, we are dropping off some very strong numbers from 10-day MA's. The MA's are now pulling back WITH LITTLE OR NO LOSS IN PRICE INDICES! This is typical of Post Bear-Market Advances from the lows, beginning to gain momentum, NOT falling back when they should. This is the most BULLISH configuration of Market Action described in most Technical Analysis books. Even the old Odd-Lot Shorts are going through the roof! Everyone knows we are in a Recession Now...or Soon! Fosback (Stock Market Logic) showed that by the time that is generally accepted, Markets are ready to move Higher...Not lower! Zweig proved that the quarter after the greatest drop-off in earnings tended to be the greatest UP quarter in Price Appreciation. I guess the "Straight Ruler" guys will jump on board when price rises above Downtrend Channel Lines and Moving Averages. That is going to create a Mad Dash out of Cash for the "fuzzy faced" money managers. We cannot say that the 2000 market corrected all the "Valuation" abuses of the last 4-5 years MANIA, or for sure that this will be more than a Bear rally in many industry groups hit hard. But we can say with reasonable certainty that conditions for a positive trade have not been clearer or more cohesive for a long, long time. Arch Crawford Crawford Perspectives