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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54335)	1/4/2001 8:06:35 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Every Once In A While They Slip Up A Bit And Put Up A Bid Above The Ask. The stocks go up in 1/2 points and down in 1/16's.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54335)	1/4/2001 9:05:47 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

hb - Just to make it clear that the so-called second rate cut today is nothing of the kind in terms of any significance. quote.bloomberg.com "01/04 17:22 Fed Cuts Discount Rate Another Quarter Point to 5.5 Percent By Michael McKee Washington, Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy- makers cut the discount rate on loans to banks from the Fed system by a quarter percentage point to 5.5 percent, the second cut in the rate in as many days. The reduction was mostly a housekeeping move. The Fed's Board of Governors didn't have authority to cut the largely symbolic discount rate by more than a quarter point yesterday, when the central bankers surprised investors by cutting the U.S. benchmark overnight bank lending rate a half-percentage point to 6 percent. Announcing the rate changes, the central bank said it was ready to approve a further reduction of 25 basis points once the Fed's district banks requested it. A majority of the 12 banks must formally request a change in the discount rate, and as of yesterday 7 of the 12 had asked only for a quarter-point cut. ``Completing action initiated yesterday, the Board of Governors today approved a discount rate of 5 1/2 percent, acting on requests submitted by the board of directors of all 12 Reserve banks,'' the Fed said in a statement announcing today's move. The board also voted 5-0 to approve yesterday's change in the discount rate. ..." Regards, Don

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54335)	1/4/2001 9:21:09 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

hb - With silver up less than 1%, Hecla (HL) up 25% on the day. Actually, the price of silver had little to do with it. From personal observation, the price was sitting nice and quiet at 1/2 up until the point I decided to convert HL shares from my traditional IRA to my ROTH IRA and pay taxes based on the closing price. Even though this doesn't involve any market participation, Fidelity requires that the conversion be done through a trader if no tax withholding is wanted. If my mere conversion of 1000 shares can drive the price up 25% in an hour, I shouldn't be trading or investing in stocks, but rather selling the leaking of advice. -g- Regards, Don

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54335)	1/4/2001 9:44:46 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

This one comes close to my hypothesis. And this guy claims that he is a pro (I have no reason to doubt that) Notice his take on CPN et al. << SUBJECT: From the Trenches - 1/4/01 ADD TO FAVORITES: *You must be logged in to use favorites THIS THREAD THIS POSTER THIS POST BAN POSTER AUTHOR: Bear Trader DATE: 1/4/01 4:36:42 PM STATS: 82 reads 1 reply From the Trenches - 1/4/01 I'm almost inclined to come off my prediction of a rally tomorrow based on I have not heard of any short selling, only covering. I still think the number will confirm the rate cut, just worried that it will not inflict the damage I thought it would. It might be just like today - a very mixed market, which takes out the stock/sector selection short sellers and leaves the overall indexes intact. Well the Fed lowered the discount rate again, so we might have started already. Most of the trading that I heard about was equal both ways, with the short-term managers dominating trading. For an idea what it was like yesterday, one trader said his share volume was 6 to 1 on the buy side, with # of trades 4 to 1 on the buy side. Another said it was about 4 to 1 on both. Talked to a futures pit trader and ask about yesterday. He said traders were literally jumping over the rail to get to the pits. He was eating lunch with a guy caught short. Looks like the pre-announcements continue today: NXTV, PCTI, BRKT, KEYN, SMTC Looking at PCG, EIX, and CPN, the Fed cut bailout was the Cal. energy companies. PCG & EIX have a massive amount of liabilities that are held in money market accounts, it these default and money market accounts start pricing under $1.00 it will make the bank runs of the 30's look tame. Also a lot of older people hold the stock because of the dividend. There is a lot of damage that would be done if these went out of business. I'm also getting nervous because firms are able to access financing again. I see that MCLD was able to complete a $750mm bond deal today at par, 11.375% coupon. Also the junk bond funds have rallied recently. Not prudent right now to be short debt theme names. Today was a wild day. I think most of it stems from the market being dominated by hedge funds that short one sector and buy another. The trade that has been popular is shorting the cyclicals and technology and buying the consumers, utilities and energy. Today they were stuck with two losing trades, which set off a round of dynamic hedging. Challenger reported 133,713 job cuts in December of which 44k were retail. Even if you throw those out because they were probably temp it still is almost 90k. This is twice the number in November. Some energy news 2000 US Demand up .3% to record, but lowest growth since 95. Gas demand down .5%, distillate demand up 3.8% to record, with stocks lowest since 89. Jet fuel demand up 1.8% to record, imports up 1.6% to record. That is all, going home. Earlier Post Scenario for the rest of the week is not heart warming. Lets take my idea of Al had the employment numbers yesterday and that was a catalyst for the cut. Like I said that would give the market the idea that there are further cuts and the market would rally. I expect today to be down slightly. This would set my "bear hook" that I talk about and then Friday will rake the bears that got hooked over the coals. Also, for all of those thinking that this is a great opportunity to short because the cut will not help the faltering economy, I agree. However, you must realize that the economy and the capital markets are dislocated. I do think longer term we are toast, but that will have no effect on the short-term trading. Wall Street likes to punish those that bet against it.>> prudentbear.com