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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jerome who wrote (41302)1/5/2001 4:50:45 AM
From: miklosh  Respond to of 70976
 
"Could all the analysts all be wrong at the same time?" Yes imo. Analyst recommendations are trailing indicators...well behind the curve. After they've all downgraded your favorite large cap co with great management, it's time to scoop up shares. If you wait for that first upgrade, you've missed the first 3 innings.

bwdik



To: Jerome who wrote (41302)1/5/2001 9:19:56 AM
From: michael97123  Respond to of 70976
 
"note: I have no credentials, no MBA. I studied Philosophy, Linguists, and History in College."

My belief has always been that folks with your type of background can offer significant insights in any field. It is incredible that there is not one analyst who would issue an upgrade on amat in the 30's or now for that matter. It just seems so obvious to me that even if it takes awhile an investment in amat will pay off bigtime. And not one will take the plunge. Defies logic and thats where the philosophy background comes in. Needless to say I majored in the social sciences as well and always amazed how hard it is for mba's to think out of the box.



To: Jerome who wrote (41302)1/5/2001 12:23:08 PM
From: John Trader  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
Jerome, I have been thinking a lot about this sort of thing lately. Prior to 2000 being a tech investor was at times like being a contrarian. In early 2000 Wall Street's MBAs seemed to be embracing tech stocks, and look what happened after that. In some ways I am amazed at how so many professionals seem to be turning bearish on technology after such a huge cut in prices last year. Such a move does not seem to make sense for one with a longer term view, since technology is the growth engine of our economy. All this, plus the Fed starting to cut rates, tends to make me very bullish. However, I checked the bull/bear statistics in Investors Business Daily on Tuesday (printed before the Fed rate cut), and the percentage of bulls was listed at about 51%, which is more bearish than anything else. If we just had more bears, then I think we would have already hit bottom for sure.

Speaking of bears, this guy was on CNBC this morning saying the Fed needs to cut rates a lot more, and fast, or the markets are going to go into a tailspin. Those were not his exact words, but I think this describes his view. He sees the 50 bp cut as way too late, and thinks it is not going to work unless there are other big cuts real soon that follow. Time will tell I guess.

This is the week that is supposed to set the tone for the the month of January in the market, and January is supposed to set the tone for the year. As I type this post, the Nasdaq is right at where it was at the start of the week, so unless we get a rally later today, this first week of January is not going to look too good. But then, if everything keeps going the way we do not expect, then maybe this January rule will be be broken this year.

John