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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (41317)	1/5/2001 2:06:16 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

John, I did some reviewing of the First Calls analysts rating for stocks in my portfolio. The stocks that had the poorest rating as of today were NVLS (2.0) TER (2.2) and LRCX (2.1). Yet over the past 30 days these have held up the best. Right about now I wish I owned only NVLS and TER. (from a performance standpoint). LRCX actually got an upgrade today. The two stocks that show the biggest improvement in analysts ratings are ATML and SSTI and yet they have gone no where. The technicians on these threads (FA & TA) keep bragging up SSTI and ATML because of the shortage of Flash Memory, and the response has been a big yawn. How many times now have we seen the familiar pattern of one or two up days followed by five down days? Its like watching the history channel and the re-runs of World War II. No matter how many versions of the War you watch it always ends the same. But if the market pattern of late stays the same, then there are probabilities of getting decent returns by either writing covered calls on the one day surges, or buying calls on the third consecutive down day for the sector. But another unusual pattern is that some companies have definite problems and the stocks are rising. Ford is the best example of this. 1) Tire problems, 2)Sales fall off, 3)earnings estimates reduced and a reduced dividend. And here the stock moves from 22 to 26. It could be that reduced expectations are OK for the investment community as long as the reduced expectations are better than most. Regards, Jerome

To: John Trader who wrote (41317)	1/5/2001 9:59:09 PM
From: brunn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Then may be this January rule will be broken this year. I believe that the January rule is based on the first 5 trading days of the year rather than the first calendar week . (For example, if January 1 fell on a Thursday, the first week of January would consist of only one day.) If I remember correctly, the first five day predicts the course of the month which in turn predicts the direction of the market for the year. This rule probably does not mean a whole lot. The first week and month of the year have a naturally bullish tendency secondary to money flow and this corresponds to the generally bullish direction of the market. However, it may be slightly more reliable than the Super Bowl indicator.