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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (41319)	1/5/2001 5:10:21 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jerome, At this point I am using analyst actions as more of a contrary indicator than anything else. The thing I am most focused on right now is AMAT price relative to the Nasdaq. Short term I would like to see AMAT dive relative to the Nasdaq, as I would like to buy into AMAT more using capital from other tech stocks. This is a very simplistic approach, but with AMAT, I know will be comfortable just forgetting about it if I want. Looking out 1 to 2 years I feel very comfortable with AMAT, but I am less sure about other tech stocks, given all the competition. For example, I heard this morning on CNBC that AMCC may see pressure on future earnings from a competing chip from Intel. Intel needs to move outside the box in order to keep up their revenue streams. The further you go down the food chain it seems the more uncertainty there is. That is a big reason why I like AMAT. If history is any guide, the rebound should be very strong, but the way I see it at least, the long term (e.g. 3 years out) risk level is fairly low. High potential reward, low risk. Hope no Wall Street analysts are reading my post as I would like those guys to continue downgrading AMAT and lowering earnings estimates. And, speaking of the analysts, I have recently downgraded the whole group. If you or anyone else on this thread can think of other tech stocks that have a very good reward/risk ratio here then please post your suggestions. I think TXN may be another one. Regards, John