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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brunn who wrote (41330)	1/6/2001 9:45:54 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Under these market conditions there are no rules. We are all on our own. As someone pointed out to me this morning its a battle between dont fight the fed vs dont fight the tape. Tape appears to be winning early. Same person pointed out it the market always goes up after the second rate cut which should happen 1/31. So we have a period to accumulate perhaps followed by the real deal from february forward. What I would like to see is a lessening of this volatility allowing nasdaq to stabilize without making new lows. Earnings are expected to be so bad maybe we will get some positive ones and a yawn when the expected bad numbers do come in. Look at bmcs where expectations got so low that they finally surprised upward last week causing a 50% pop in an admittedly beaten up stock. And thats in the mainframe business.

To: brunn who wrote (41330)	1/7/2001 3:00:16 AM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Brunn, Thanks for the info on the January rule. You are right, when you think about it, it does not seem to be very significant. We could probably come up with all sorts of rules, like when the market is down 3 days in a row it is likely to be up the forth day, etc. One thing that would be interesting from a psychological perspective would be to read old news stories, etc., at previous market bottoms. Right now I would like to be able to somehow log onto the web as it was back in October of 98. One thing I may do is go to the library and look up the bull/bear ratio then as published in Investors Business Daily, and compare to where we are now. It seems that we don't have enough bears for a market bottom right now (IBD had 51% bulls in Wednesday's paper). Of course, this ratio is for the overall market. A beter indicator would probably be a bull/bear ratio on the Nasdaq. I wonder when the Nasdaq will find its true bottom. FWIW Bill Siedman (spelling?), the chief commentator on CNBC, is bearish on the Nasdaq this year. His prediction is that it will be flat to down 20% for the year. His predictions last year were almost right on. One thing is for sure, the next year will be very interesting to see how it all plays out. John