John,
An interesting concept to log onto the web as it was back in October of 98. We can do just that here on
SI and check out the old posts. I dug up a few. I checked the split adjusted AMAT prices for the date of the posts and put them in for reference.
(AMAT=$14 1/8)
To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (20124)
From: Brian Kerecz Thursday, Jun 11, 1998 6:10 PM ET
Reply #20170 of 41341
Teri,
Re:Do you really believe what you wrote? I see like a zillion holes in it. First, EPS peaked in '96 at 1.635
Wrong. FY95 eps was $3.96 pre-split($1.98)
Re:fund managers (or anyone else really) can't wait for 2002.
I really do not care what the MMs do in the ST. If the aforementioned scenario even comes close(yes, I believe everything I wrote), then the MMs will be flocking to AMAT sometime between now and the peak. Ill be holding my shares.
BK
(AMAT= 14 11/16)
(Jacob, BTW, what did you do with the split adjusted $50 INTC leaps? AG 01/07/2001)
To: andy kelly who wrote (20652)
From: Jacob Snyder Jun 23, 1998 2:26 AM
Respond to Post # 20674 of 41341
re: " Are you nibbling on AMAT LEAPS yet? The 01Jan 30's look tempting to me at 10 1/2"
No. I'm nibbling at 2001 INTC 100s. Bought some at 12.5, and some at 10. I think INTC has a more secure floor, and I'm unlikely to get the LEAPS cheaper. As for AMAT LEAPS: when the 2001 40s became available on 5-18-98, they sold for 13 3/8 (ask price).They are now available for about half that price, while the stock has only declined from 37 to 28. Buying these puns a premium on patience and timing. No puts intended.
AMAT was in a 32-40 trading range for 3 1/2 months (Feb. to mid-May). Then it stair-stepped down, and is now in the process of establishing a new range, probably 26-32. This trading range will last at least a couple of months, and may last till the end of the year. What are the chances that the stock is going straight up from here, after just touching 26 once, and you'll never get a better price? The chances are zip. The stock has never moved that way, while forming tops or bottoms. We need to form a base. So, even if you think that this trading range represents the bottom, there is no hurry. Wait a bit, and get a bit of certainty. This is an easy decision.
The hard decision is once the stock has formed a base. Lets say its mid-July, or mid-August, and the stock is still at about 30? What now? I won't repost my reasons for thinking the next step will be down, (to a 20-26 trading range??; for the rest of 1998???). I think the thread is getting tired of hearing it, and I have nothing new to say, and nothing has changed. Anyway, I'll re-evaluate then and decide.
And if the stock hits 20, I'm likely to get the 2001 40s for 3-4$. Now that would be yummy.
(AMAT=12 3/32. We have been hearing similar remarks from Mr. Greenberg lately, have we not? AG 01/07/2001)
To: Big Bucks who wrote (24021)
From: KM Thursday, Sep 10, 1998 10:30 AM ET
Reply #24022 of 41341
Here's a comment from H. Greenberg, may have some influence on anyone's impulse to buy here:
Final Flash: My spies at the Salomon Smith Barney Tech Conference in New York say that semi equipment manufacturers at the conference report that their business has stopped. Dead.
(AMAT= 11 9/16, bottomed three days later at 11 3/16. Eugene must be psychic! AG 01/07/2001)
To: akidron who wrote (24894)
From: Eugene Kearney Monday, Oct 5, 1998 8:30 PM ET
Reply #24897 of 41341
I think we are close in time to the bottom, but perhaps not in price. In other words, I see a bottom this month, but the potential is certainly there for a final blowoff to the 6000's. However, I didn't need this experience to remind myself that I am never sure of anything.
I am stunned by how savage this drop has been. Really shocked. I follow about 200 companies pretty closely, and did have about 25 positions, which I know very, very well. Some of these companies are being butchered for no good reason, and God help them if they have any real, fundamental problem.
IMO, the csco "thing" has to do with the ftc announcement and the downgrade. The analyst is not one of the boys closest to the company, but his comments are very rational. Slowing growth in complex nets, like financial companies, and you have a problem with csco. Plus the phone companies may slow equipment purchases. Finally, csco's valuation is still not near previous trough levels. I lived through the 94 and 97 drops. It sucked bad and so does this one, but I think the pe got to just above 20 each of those times..we are at a still a little scary upper 30's. CSCO will be cheap at 40, though, because I believe this is basically bulls*** and they will e ~1.50 in the fiscal year ending next summer. Do we throw out the potential for growth when the world heals? I think not. CSCO will grow at a 30% pace for years. I believe in the eventuality of the net, and so I have to buy csco now and I did.
At times like these I hang on, and make sure I live to play the next day. It is the only way I can take advantage of a great companies powerful economic position.
(AMAT=13 13/32 as the train leaves the station)
To: Eugene Kearney who wrote (25197)
From: KM Monday, Oct 12, 1998 11:32 AM ET
Respond to Post # 25198 of 41341
Real short squeeze going on in NVLS. AMAT up 4 plus. Going to short here for a trade. |
