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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (37567)	1/5/2001 6:08:53 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

A.L., Re: NOK << I suspect you'll highlight in your report that probably this trend continued on a worldwide basis in Q4 >> Most assuredly I will. One reason (amongst several ... infra even more difficult than handsets and SDR is SDR) for my delay in publishing the report was the delay in getting anything definitive on Q3 & 2000 YTD handset sales. << It appears, again from those anecdotal carrier reports, that the Q4 trend in new subs favors the lower end and more consumer-oriented devices in which NOK is dominant >> I have every reason to believe that NOK will retain and perhaps even improve on the > 2X their competitors numbers << None of the Q4 reports so far bode well for MOT or ERICY in the aggregate >> They do not. Siemens is coming on very strong and the Asians (more and more into GSM/GPRS/W-CDMA every day) are chewing the legs off the little 2 of the big 3 allowing Nokia time to do GPRS right. I remember when ERICY, not all that long ago (96 or 97) had close to 70% market share in mobile handsets. This clip from todays news (and particularly the text I have bolded in it) is one of the reasons I recently reestablished a NOK position after a 2 year LOA (because they were a Prince). >> Nokia (NOK) 42 1/16 -2 1/8: Dain Rauscher Wessels initiates coverage with a BUY AGGRESSIVE based on company's global dominance as it leverages scale, brand, and a best-in-class product portfolio; expects NOK will grow faster than the overall handset market in 2001 as it capitalizes on its scale advantages, meaningfully enters the CDMA market, and takes advantage of weaknesses at its largest competitors. - street.com - << When Jorma speaks, I listen. ... but I hold Kings lightly. And ... he may have helped save GSM back when it first launched, but his people sure have not mastered CDMA (yet), and CDMA mastery is a must, given the significance of the US marketplace to NOK (not to mention the rest of the world with W-CDMA). - Eric -