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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (66085)	1/6/2001 10:44:11 AM
From: 10K a day	Respond to of 99985

I know for a fact...you can lose your money... just as easily buying an 80 percent off sale....as buying at the top... BTW, that was a 'TelMex rally' the other day. Total Happy Steer Manure...

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (66085)	1/6/2001 10:48:39 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 99985

It's certainly possible that there will be new lows several months out from here on the NAS. My thinking is that looking at either Japan in 1990 or US in 1929 the NAS has come down further faster already. It could go down some more but it would just be unlikely to go down that much faster than the previous collapses. So like you I think there will be a rise from here for at least a while. Then it could just chop up and down till one day fundamental values catch up or go down further. There will be a recession some day but we could just as well be in the equivalent of 1988 in the US now. David

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (66085)	1/6/2001 10:56:55 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

If we will have a smart administration and even smarter congress and cooperation from Europe we can avoid your scenario. 1. Shrub finally will agree that first he is paying down the US debt as the main issue for a healthy economy 2. The congress will agree to shore up the budget and first pay down the debt and then go along with Shrub to lower income taxes selectively and broader taxes across the board at a rate of 20% of so called surpluses. Result very low interest rates on a relative basis 3% ?? possible. 3. Europe will stop their political bickering and open markets and support business reform deregulation and true Euro integration 4. China will drift even more to capitalistic enterprises and start open their market, and recognize Taiwan as it is in hope for reunification 5. India will stop their internal bickering and focus on productivity and profitable enterprises and eliminate bribes 6. Russia at large flush with funds from energy revenue will channel the money in public works, rule of law and rebuilding their economic infrastructure. 7. OPEC will realize that oil revenue do better in prosperous financial markets than money market accounts and hold oil prices around $24 to $26 a barrel. 8. Arafat and his leadership will dissapear as will Mubarak and Saddam in Iraq and more moderate Westeren Style leaders will emerge in the ME (well this is a strech I admit) It sounds a bit to optimistic but duable the question is will they garner the wisdom. BWDIK Haim

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (66085)	1/6/2001 12:15:26 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I agree, but I want to play for that 1K rally, I was only up 5% in 2000 after 1999's 2700% return I need to pick up the pace. My boss(wife) says iam fired if I cant get my performance up-ng-

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (66085)	1/6/2001 1:48:58 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

George--I find myself scratching my head at the "3 phases" guideline this time around--regardless of what Don Hays and Richard Russell suggest must be the case-3 Phases of a Bear means in effect that instead of a simple A dn, B up then C dn (ie 2 dn phases) we do a 1-2-3-4-5 where 1,3 and 5 are the 3 dn phases......But, IF we do end up doing a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave to the downside from the march peak, then after a Retrace, we will have to do yet another 1-2-3-4-5 down---ie the Bear does NOT usually end at the bottom of 5--it ends after the first 12345 is taken out on the downside after a retrace--That implies that IF we see a 12345 this time around (where we're near or at the end of 3 now), then the final Low on the Naz would likely be materially below 1250 eventually when the first 12345 is eventually taken out...I doubt this will occur----To sum up--TWO phases of a Bear is a Retrace move, leading 'ultimately' to new highs, while THREE phases means only the end of the FIRST larger Wave down...My vote is that TWO phases will do it this time around....since I believe that all we are doing here is tracing out one big Wave IV of a larger and longer sequence. In contrast, the Prechter's of the world are convinced that this is the Big One and that "every mania is followed by a decline that ends BELOW the starting point of the mania"--listing as examples, the dotcoms of 2000, the south sea bubble, the crash of 29, the tulip mania of 1637 and the coin price bubble of 1990. They believe that the mania phase on the Naz is likely in the low teens....We shall see