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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LaVerne E. Olney who wrote (5953)	1/6/2001 12:39:04 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 19219

Hi Laverne, I like how you reverse the VIX to the S&P. I have very patiently been waiting for a vix spike like that of 98. As you point out it hasn't occurred. Your comment about moderately high vix when combined with duration of time has been a question that has nagged me for a while.I really don't have an answer. Both could be possible. The reverse: of Low Vix for a long time surely DOES result in a large decline - therefore your predictive assumption has good merit in my mind. In trying to rationalize the comfortable thought that the bottom is close to over (without the big vix spike ),I've conjurred up some also need to see developements : Many stocks MUST have divergences with indicators and price.In other words indicators don't get so low as before when price is at the same level. I see that going on now in many semi equip stocks(most of what I watch). Even the Generals must get whacked down - to a point where institutions support them with massive block purchases i.e. msf6t csco intc nvls,amat all support that its happening now. This is the tough one and I haven't seen it yet. No new leadership of high growth. Of course it's in the confessional time period - this too shall pass. Thanks for sharing your great work - it shows great study ! Bob

To: LaVerne E. Olney who wrote (5953)	1/6/2001 1:36:02 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Hi Laverne again, Wow further study of your post is a gift. Your post should be a "cool post" of the day. Your Nazdaq 10 day trin chart is a mirror of an old hand written 3 day moving average advance/ decline chart I used to labor over daily it is the exact same. I used to punch out hours of work trying to keep up all those charts.I did that basically for one reason - timing major bottoms and tops. Obviosly you've become a student of Oct. 1998. With Trin Vix Naz Hi Low Summation and Naz McClellan summation you certainly have the timing down. Great Job !! Let me ask you what has been a mystery to me?Did you see the nasty viscious double bottom coming that occurred in the first week of October. I didn't. In studying it,I've always thought the only proof of the pooding was The Vix spike.The pop to 62 nailed it. Having said that - it was a no brainer to buy the perfect bottom because many stocks were screaming "its scary but I'm going up" in that as price reached new lows - as your Naz Hi-LO Summation points out so well. Many of the semi equip co stocks were almost bragging divergences. When I talk of Divergences I'm obviosly not as well trained in the mathematical formulations of the referenced indicators.Rather I do study daily TC 2000 by the Worden brothers.During the perfect bottom many semiequip stocks where hitting new lows while Time Segmented Volume,Balance of Power and Macd where all not going to new lows like price was - IN FACT they were migrating from negative to positive. I currently see that occurring in Nvls,Ltxx,Cohu and others.That leads me to believe your premise that greater duration in vix could well be an equivalent to a short violent spike. It goes well with the saying - Price does not alone make a bottom it also takes time. Nothing is perhaps more powerful in this market ,especially after the volatile MOMO times we've been thru. Time duration may well be the perfect indicator. Darn it just hard to read. Leads me back to the need to look out for divergences.JMHO If I could be so bold,could I ask how you construct these wonderful charts.My expertise is limited on computers - but you have made my day to see someone who has harnessed computing power to do what I have thought for years to be most important in developing good timing. Thank you for sharing and thank you even more if you could enable me to duplicate their message in the future. Bob

To: LaVerne E. Olney who wrote (5953)	1/6/2001 2:45:15 PM
From: byhiselo	Respond to of 19219

great work, thanks for sharing cheers

To: LaVerne E. Olney who wrote (5953)	1/6/2001 2:49:58 PM
From: napoopoo1	Respond to of 19219

La Verne, Thanks for posting the charts and interesting information. Best wishes, N1

To: LaVerne E. Olney who wrote (5953)	1/6/2001 6:24:01 PM
From: Bruce Denney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

If SI is awake today they need go no further than your comments to find their post of the day. A excellent read thank you. regards

To: LaVerne E. Olney who wrote (5953)	1/11/2001 12:06:02 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Leo, Your post here is poetry in motion and suggests by all historical measures we should be at/near a bottom. Granted NDX/COMP and SPX have bounced for the last few days and relieves oversold positions - but these are nothing more than guerrilla type rallies. Sentiment seems to carry more weight these days and rydex daily update is as dynamic a reading as you will ever get. I think we are going to get a thourough wash-out once and for all to clear the deck and get these sentiment readings in line with your historical extremes... It was only one week ago today after Mr. G. cut fed funds 50 basis points and .25 basis point cuts back to back in the discount rate and the market screamed higher that I thought we had this chance for token new highs on the DOW over the next 4-6 weeks... These rydex numbers suggest otherwise. Best Regards, J.T.