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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (8420)	1/7/2001 11:49:38 AM
From: Doug	Respond to of 11568

Hi Tom: You have a very interesting index. This sell off is really skewed and exaggerated. The NAZ had a huge artificial spike last year. Even without the spike, the NAZ was essentially overvalued for its current earnings/growth. Prices for many TECH stocks are still above 99 levels even though earnings/growth are below 99 levels. Without Fed intervention, the NAZ would have gone down further. Thanks to his interventon it spiked upwards. Based on this, I would agree that as long as A.G is in play the market will tend to rise from the current low. Because of that, I see the NAZ rising in the next 2-3 mths supported by interest rate cuts. However, A.G has a limited hand between now and July. The TECH sector earnings can only rise in Q3 and Q4. The April forecast will trigger a sell off and A.G will not be able to do much. That could set the stage for a sharp sell off to a lower level. How do you see the NAZ shaping in the first half.? Thx.