To: James Strauss who wrote (7382 ) 1/8/2001 7:58:34 AM From: Bucky Katt Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13094 Jim, from what I have seen over the weekend, this economy is still very strong. People spending $$$ like crazy. I saw huge lines at fine dining establishments, talked with the people working at a few of these places, and they said they had never been busier than this past Friday and Saturday. Over the weekend I needed some rca cables for my sound system, went to a Radio Shack (RSH) store, and there were so many people I couldn't move, and they were buying all sorts of stuff. It amazed me. Then I went to a BBY store, and there were more teenagers with order pads than customers in the giant store I was in. They also did not have in stock a computer part I needed. But they did have some blank cd's I needed. Good going on you "safety" bets.... And excerpt from the current Barron's Up & Down Wall Street> The asset bubble or new-technology boom, however, is a whole different animal, and so are the causes of its demise. The main culprit is a surfeit of capital investment that inevitably leads to oversupply and glut. Margins and profits suffer, returns to the folks spending all that dough fail to meet expectations and asset values crumble. "Even zero interest rates," Marc ventures, "may not help." Compounding the woe is that an asset bubble or capital-spending boom is financed largely by long-term borrowings at fixed rates. During the bust, the interest costs on the long-term debt assumed to finance capital investment do not decline; indeed, in real terms, they become more onerous, the sorry stuff of rising defaults and bankruptcies. Bubbles and investment manias, Marc says, always mark the terminal phase of a business expansion, although mistaken for its start. They are followed invariably by "deflationary busts, sharply declining equity prices, a weakening currency and a downward spiral in the economy."