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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (44855)	1/7/2001 7:35:38 PM
From: Stuart T	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Naz-100 P/E is about 175 siliconinvestor.com I have also seen other numbers floating around and they are all high P/Es. With the market so scared these days and earnings coming out, it wouldn't take much to bring the market down substantially lower. Longer term I think we are going up. I just don't think there is any hurry to put additional money back in the market. Wait until a bottom is firmly in place and the longer term trend (weekly chart) is in an uptrend. Remember the Presidential Election Cycle for Investments. "An interesting indicator is based upon the presidential election cycle. Simply put, every four years,stock prices tend to perform much better in the last two years of an administration rather than in the first two years. This difference arises because the incumbent President in years three and four acts politically to ensure the party's return to power. Yale Hirsch has extensively researched the cycle,with the results providing evidence of the validity of this indicator.The last two years, (election year and pre-election year) of the 41 administrations since 1832 produced a total net market gain of 557%, far in excess of the 74% gain of the first two years of these administrations. Although the evidence is convincing, there have been misleading signals. For example,in 1985 and 1986, when stock prices should have been weak, they were up 27% and 17% respectively." google.com Just my opinion

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (44855)	1/7/2001 8:24:13 PM
From: Smart_Money	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Whiteboy and I have been preaching the QQQ for sometime. If you allocate 1/3 to them at this level its hard to go wrong. If it goes lower you buy another 1/3 and if still lower or even higher you buy your final round of 1/3. The timeline is approx 4 months. This should equal a very good LONG TERM holdings. The beauty of the QQQ is you can not get a surprise warning that could potentially wipe out half of your money. In 10 years you will be smiling. BTW, when the bottom happens we will never know it because by then we will be months past it.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (44855)	1/7/2001 9:17:12 PM
From: Kaliico	Respond to of 57584

Technically speaking, the QQQ's are still in a downtrend Not much profound there. Have a look at the 50 dma. When it breaks this trend convincingly to the upside, it would be a better time to go long. Using a chart from Sept 1 2000, the highs and lows being made are all lower. Trendline has not been convincingly breached to the upside at all. Most likely scenario , another new low is ahead. While I dont tend to call bottoms, I believe it's near for the NAS, then flat trading for a quarter or more. So going long the QQQ and sitting may be dead money or even harder, watching the price bounce around like a ping pong ball. Given mho your strat may best pay off going long when the current trend breaks ? For the foreseeable future, trading the QQQ's around the 20 and 50 pma's would be a lot more profitable imho. K

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (44855)	1/7/2001 11:19:25 PM
From: carepedeum2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

if your willing to sit on them a year, you cant go wrong, imo, im totally focussed on short term trading right now, so i can swing from bull to bear pretty quick, but long term, you cant fight the fed, this market will come back, short term, we have one more week of earnings warnings, cisco is the big one still out there and they dont report till feb 6th, so you got a couple more weeks to sweat on that one, and i want to see if greenspan surprise was politics or a rat in the woodpile, we should get another burst day this week, and the russian mess/utility crisis could continue to put a lid on things, if csco does warn, that would be a great entry for the qqq's (after the warning) so long term, you should be fine, short term there might be a better entry there's my thoughts ps keep in mind when the fed started raising rates, the market kept going up for awhile till the rate hikes took hold, so we will probably get the same thing in reverse, it will take a quarter or two before the rate cuts really take hold and we get the big move, in the mean time, i see us bouncing all over the trading range (and the major downtrend is still intact) so i dont think i would buy qqq's for the drawer right now, but they do make for good swing trades if you can identify the current trading range

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (44855)	1/7/2001 11:28:46 PM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 57584

The flaw is in this assumption: Since the next support level for the NASDAQ is 2100, if NASDAQ drops to 2300 again the downside risk is 10%. However, looking ahead one year, I do not think it is a stretch to see the NASDAQ at 3400-3500 in early 2002 after AG and the Fed reduce rates and add liquidity to the economy. That is a 60% gain in 12 months if this plays out. The other shoe to drop is DJIA. Watch for it when earnings coming out this quarter and next. I wouldn't count on we're at bottom yet.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (44855)	1/8/2001 12:50:34 AM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Nothing wrong with your thinking, but Bear markets are notorious for wiping out the bulls. There is a lot of complacency still and bottom picking in this area is increasing. Could be a perfect set-up for more disappointment. If I may, I have just a few thoughts to add...There is no set amount a bear market has to decline. Is 55% enough? or do we need to see 90%? Nor is there a set time frame. In fact, another thought, while bear markets may not have lasted more than a year in the past, they have been known to trend no where for years on end. Also, rate cuts may have little effect for a while. For one thing, they tend to take an average of 6 months to begin showing an economic effect. And a little trivia....the FED cut rates 6 times in 1929 to no avail. While this is not 1929, the same scenario cannot be ruled out due to different factors. Remember, this market has come off a top that far exceeded the excesses created even back in 1929. Not to say that my thoughts are correct, but one must certainly examine both sides of the coin and always take it into consideration. As a note, I am a bear, but I trade the market both ways, and find myself constantly evaluating bullish thoughts so I have several perspectives on the market. I also enjoy Rande's thoughts and I think there there is value to his "burst" theory of late as it fits right in with bear market action. I am putting extra caution in my trades recently because the volatility makes things a tad more difficult to read. Good luck. Velo