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To: jim kelley who wrote (63978)	1/9/2001 8:13:17 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

jim: I believe Intel has a slide show going over its 2001 issues. It may still be at their web site. Take a look! I called that webcast you referred to the modern day equivalent of the "traveling carnival medicine man sideshow" the day after. Someone on this thread called me the equivalent of a "moron" when I stated that their projections of high double digit sales and earnings growth for 2001 were not realistic. Hell, it might have been you. I said nothing to the stinging criticism at the time but within two weeks, Intel revised downwards 4Q and 2001 guidance. Your scenario of 50% P4 mix in 2001 may be possible if Dell goes to 100% market share for Intel based computer sales and they deliver all of P4 sales. Otherwise, I will stand with my prediction that P4 will do OK but SDRAM based computers will make up a minimum of 70-80% of worldwide CPU sales in 2001. I still do not see China, Africa, India or South America needing P4 anytime soon. john

To: jim kelley who wrote (63978)	1/9/2001 8:22:03 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Jim, re: "Intel has said that the cross over for the P4 will be at the end of 2001 if not sooner..." You also said, Over the next year or two the P4 ramp is critical. If it is shipping in 50% of the PC's buy the year end (2001).... Intel was projecting that P4 may cross over PIII by year end. You need to factor out AMD, Celeron, Laptops, etc. If they reach their goal of PIII cross-over I'd guess no more than 25% run rate of P4 PC's. That target is very aggressive, IMO.