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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (63998)	1/10/2001 12:14:38 AM
From: vc21	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Let me throw a question out to the board: What do you think a Micron settlement would do to Rambus stock the day the news hits? Me first? About 50 points.

To: jim kelley who wrote (63998)	1/10/2001 12:45:53 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: I believe that it is actually a moot thesis because the P3 will be pushed into the low end of the market by year end and there will be no Celerons being produced. All this is possible because of the transition to big wafers and the .13 micron process. These two process improvement improve the device production 4X or 300% capacity improvement. Hence, no further need for the Celeron. Celeron and P3 are the same size - in fact, they are the same chip. A capacity increase is totally irrelevant to the P3/Celeron mix. P4, which requires 4 times the wafer area as P3/Celeron is a different story. Also, 4x would generally be looked upon as a 400% increase, rather than a 300% increase. I know facts and arithmetic and stuff like that are totally irrelevant to you, but, what the heck. Dan

To: jim kelley who wrote (63998)	1/10/2001 2:49:39 AM
From: Barry Grossman	Respond to of 93625

Our newest licensee - dailynews.yahoo.com Tuesday January 9 9:47 PM ET M'bishi to Build $1.7 Billion Chip Plant By Mitsuo Suzuki TOKYO (Reuters) - Mitsubishi Electric Corp on Wednesday announced it would build a $1.7 billion semiconductor plant in western Japan, driving up chip-making capacity as global demand surges. Japan's fifth biggest chipmaker said it expected the new plant, which will manufacture advanced memory chips and system large scale integration (LSI) chips for a range of electronics devices such as mobile phones, would be built by 2003. Shares in Mitsubishi Electric jumped to a high of 765 yen on the news before settling at 759 yen by 11:15 a.m., up 1.47 percent on the day, bucking an overall downtrend in the Tokyo market on Wednesday. The semiconductor sector has been a key source of profit for Mitsubishi, which moved back into the black in the half-year to September on brisk sales of chips and cellular phones. The world's top chipmakers have been raising capital spending to ramp up production, prompted by booming sales of digital devices such as mobile phones and personal digital assistants (PDAs). A Mitsubishi spokesman said the company hopes to operate the new plant in Kochi prefecture as a joint venture with Matsushita Electric Industrial Co Ltd and its unlisted subsidiary Matsushita Electronics Corp to reduce investment costs. Matsushita said it could not comment immediately. Aiming To Prune Costs The new Kochi factory, to be built next to an existing plant, will be capable of producing 12-inch next-generation wafers, reducing production costs by 30 percent from its existing Kochi plant which manufactures eight-inch wafers. The company will spend 10 billion yen this year on an initial factory capable of producing 25,000 12-inch wafers a month, but a decision on output would depend on conditions in the chip market. Chips used in telecommunications systems, cell phones and digital information devices helped the electronics group pull out of the red with a 75.8 billion yen net profit in the half-year to September, a turnaround from a 3.3 billion yen loss in the previous corresponding period. It said robust demand for chips, as well as increased sales of mobile phones, boosted group interim sales by 13 percent to a record 1.9 trillion yen. The Semiconductor International Capacity Statistics, a global chip statistics body, said in November world semiconductor production capacity rose 6.7 percent in July-September from the previous quarter, reflecting demand for mobile phones and personal computers.

To: jim kelley who wrote (63998)	1/10/2001 8:25:30 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Jim, re: I believe that it is actually a moot thesis because the P3 will be pushed into the low end of the market by year end and there will be no Celerons being produced Eventually PIII will replace Celeron in the Value segment, but I doubt if it will happen this year. The Intel segmentation strategy requires significance performance advantage of Mainstream over Value. That differential is much less with PIII than Celeron. (Celeron is a crippled PIII. Intel could have pushed PIII into the Value segment years ago, but it would have had significant impact on margins. They needed to maintain a performance advantage in the Performance/Mainstream segments. I also think the i820 was intended to provide advantage of the Performance segment over Mainstream). I expect this year the goal is to get P4 into all Performance PC's, and begin to migrate into Mainstream. And as PIII replaces Celeron, it doesn't change the dynamics of segment pricing. The Value segment and most of the Mainstream segments will still use SDRAM. One way to look at it, PIII replacement of Celeron doesn't add anything to RDRAM production. And there still is a question as to what memory will be used with P4 in the Mainstream segment. We need to keep an eye on the road map. When/if Brookdale is introduced, will it support SDRAM/DDR? In 2002 256MB DIMM's will be priced like 128MB today. How close can RDRAM get? JMHO's