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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenehugh who wrote (1197)	1/10/2001 11:38:22 AM
From: Dave Gore	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6445

Greene, with under 5% unemployment, I personally don't see a recession. Also, with rate cuts already here and more coming, I think we see continued positive psychological impact immediately and some significant economic pickup within 2-4 months, not the 6-9 months that some are quoting. Even if full impact does take 6-9 months, remember the Market is ALWAYS forward-looking by as much as 3-6 months. Also be careful not to lump all recessions together. As always there are degrees and if we do get one, it could be very shallow and very short (i.e. very slightly negative GDP this quarter and next, then gone). Plus the Market has probably already partially at least factored in a recession. And finally, there are ALWAYS bargains even in a bear market, sometimes significant ones, as often even the high quality, relatively low PE stocks with good growth prospects, can get swept down way too far because of a sector call in general and the "lumping" effect. Again, ELNT at $19...please! ELNT is a perfect example of the extremes to which a Market takes a stock in both directions. Of course, its high of $120+ was also ridiculous. That said, however, if people can short, how can I argue with NTIQ near $110 (as it was a month or so ago) being way overvalued? That was insane. And the examples are still everywhere. That's why I said a while back that there will probably come a point in the not-to-distant future where certain stocks like BEAS will stop rebounding after they drop (and there are a lot worse companies than BEAS). Soon they will go down and keep going down without rebounding as much, if at all. If I had my way, like many of you, there would be no virtually no stocks with a negative PE above, say, above $10-20 per share and no profitable stocks with a PE above 100 at all. That will never totally happen of course, but we should come closer as time goes by and some further sanity returns.