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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (84090)	1/10/2001 8:33:18 PM
From: Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Seems to me the real NG issue is where will we be NEXT winter in regard to storage. We will be starting at least 600 bcf lower. This may be the beginning of the treadmill Matt Simmons warned about.Now our cautious colleagues wisely warn about (1) demand decreasing as economy slows, (2) increased supply due to significantly more drilling, (3) flush production also increasing supply and (4) increased Canadian imports.Basically ,however, these arguments are no more sound than their counterpoints: (1) a softer economic landing than many here expect,(2) continued high rates of depletion, (3)increased NG fired electrical generation,(4) normal weather patterns,and(5)continued low production growth. Who is correct? Who knows? Probably IQs are pretty evenly distributed on each side. There ain't no morons around here. My bet is on the latter argument but I am a realist also. My general feeling is increased electrical demand serves as a new base of support for NG--Big Bull-this is something we have not seen before. In the end I believe the treadmill started with that cold Nov-Dec period and it will take years to recover. I expect KEG,GW,NSS and MVK to benefit from this new environment--Frank