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To: michael97123 who wrote (46685)	1/10/2001 6:50:59 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

hyper bull market and inflation at some level. Keep your gold in your sailboat and be ready. -ggg- What you are predicting here is economic armeggedon Seriously, I think easy Al will just keep cutting all the way to zero if he has to. I don't think there will be war or anything of the sort. To be clear why I think rate cuts will be ineffective, I think the stock market has BECOME our economy. No amount of cuts will reinflate it to keep the game going. Without a bull market, this economy has no choice but to collapse. In other words, the stock market (lead by the Naz) is what will cause the recession. Rate cuts may be good for businesses, but they won't help consumers. The consumer buying new cars and living a lavish lifestyle from tech stock gains, will rate cuts help them? What about old people planning for retirement? I know many that have drastically cut spending over the last 6 months because they are suddenly realizing that the early retirement on a big income isn't reality anymore. Of course this isn't enough to grind the economy to a complete halt, but I do believe it's enough to cause a recession. Ultimately, consumers drive our economy and I don't believe rate cuts are going to make them spend more. The only hope is reinflating the bubble, which will just make it worse later on when it goes. Easy Al has already let this go way too far. chic

To: michael97123 who wrote (46685)	1/10/2001 6:54:00 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

i think we will see a world financial crisis...like Soros says..."it's inevitable". i think that the big shock to the market will come when the banks get in to trouble and then the bond market starts to fall appart. The end result will be massive losses in the so called "safe" money market funds. It's so sad that people are pulling money out the market and putting it into money market funds with "commercial paper" that they know nothing about. Make no mistake about it...it will be really bad when big losses start to come in money market funds. I don't know that much about how the funds work but I imagine that if people start pulling money out of money market funds in mass it will be very bad. Who is going to eat the bad debt? Some one will have to...and there will be plenty-o bad debt to go around. Combine this with lost gains in the market, the public will be in for a shock... the spending habits will continue to change and i think this recession that is coming will result in a depression. Again, Let me be clear...Like Fleck says...I don't wish it to happen but I am sure it will likely happen. I feel sick about it. Honest. I have a 8 1/2 month daughter...I worry about her future. About the education system and about crime. I think that things are going to get so bad I think we will see a real rise in violent crime in the coming years. I know I must sound like some lunatic but these are my beliefs. I am trying to make as much frigging money as I can right now so I can move to the Hamptons and retire at the end of this down cycle. Then I will do some value buying in stocks and sit on a paid off house and be happy that I have no debt. Sorry, if I come off rude some times...I like most get frustrated through out the day when I have bad trades or what ever. (often not enough sleep cause my kid is teething) What ever the case...I just want to make money like the rest of you. I just don't think that this time the fed will save us. This time it is different in that way...cutting rates won't help...Just ask the Japanese. bambs