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To: pbull who wrote (8905)	1/13/2001 12:32:52 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Look at ARBA, CREE, and RMBS an tell me the bear is over.

To: pbull who wrote (8905)	1/14/2001 1:00:07 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 13572

pbull, << Time for the tech bears to begin to make a graceful exit, IMO, instead of just yelling for more, more and more. >> Dunno about that. I've been looking very closely at market internals lately. The 21 day SMA of the Arms Index ($TRIN) has been steadily trending upwards over the past month (i.e., more bearish). Of itself, I don't think this is a particularly noteworthy observation, particularly since the slope is rather gradual. But I just plotted the 2 day SMA and the 5 day SMA superimposed on the 21 day SMA. Wish I could post the chart somehow, but maybe I can describe it. I found it rather striking. As you might expect, the 2 and 5 day oscillate around the 21 day SMA. The 2 day SMA in particular touches more extreme deviations from the 21 day SMA, again not surprisingly, but immediately and quite sharply regresses back towards the longer moving average. In the last month, it has not only regressed sharply back towards this mean, but crossed it and moved to the other extreme 6 out or 8 times. The two times it didn't do this, it rebounded back, then crossed the 21 day SMA the very next day. At the moment, the 2 day SMA just bounced off what appears to be an extreme bullish divergence from the 21 day SMA---from a level which has contained all prior readings over the past month except three---and is now headed upwards back towards the 21 day SMA. If it continues in this trajectory (and this appears very likely), the next reading of this average should be a bit over 1.00 and rising. That is, it is now signaling bear! This is a short-term trend indication (i.e., 3-5 days) only, and looks fairly clear to me. However, it says nothing about what medium and longer term trends might be. Also, there are many stocks that are reaching short-term overbought levels, and have diverged significantly from the short-term moving averages, and/or are approaching overhead resistance from declining longer term moving averages. These situations are, IMHO, an ideal set-up for a short position. I don't consider myself a bear, but I'll be looking for short positions next week just the same. I for one won't be "yelling bear", or "bull" either for that matter. Just hoping to make a buck, whichever way the market has a mind to go. As for longs, the biotechs still appear to have some legs left. JMVHO, as always............. Walkingshadow

To: pbull who wrote (8905)	1/14/2001 5:20:37 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 13572

pbull, In the previous post, I forgot to mention something. Over the last month, here's how the $COMPX and S&P performed two days after these peaks and valleys in the 2 day SMA of the $TICK: After lows (i.e., relative extreme bullish readings) in the $TICK 2 SMA, the S&P lost 1.5% in two days on average, while the $COMPX lost 3.0% in two days on average. After highs (i.e., relative extreme bearish readings) in the $TICK 2 SMA, the S&P gained 2.2% in two days on average, and the $COMPX gained 5.4% in two days on average. Admittedly, this is not enough of a sample of highs and lows to be able to really conclude anything. Still, it suggests that relative extreme readings in the $TICK: 1) Are followed immediately by a sharp reversal in the $TICK, and therefore a reversal in market trend; 2) Have similar directional implications for both the S&P and the $COMPX indices (despite the fact that the calculation of the $TICK is not directly based on $COMPX data); 3) The impact on the $COMPX is greater than that for the SPX, likely a result of the differing inherent volatilities of these indices. Again, the 2 day SMA of the $TICK on Friday began to rebound off another relative extreme low (i.e., bullish) reading and is headed sharply towards more bearish $TICK readings. Extrapolating the curve suggests the $TICK will close on Tuesday at around 1.20, continuing to solidly enter short-term bearish territory; this implies a short-term downtrend in both the SPX and the $COMPX ahead of from 2 to 4 days. JMVHO............YMMV Walkingshadow