Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (66783)	1/13/2001 2:21:45 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Yeah, I know. The doji represents indecision and can be a reliable turning point indicator. I'm looking at anecdotal kind of evidence that things are noticeably changing for the better (the long point of view). The daily chart does not look bad with MA's flattening out and the shorter MA's turning up. Also, the weekly chart has to be a real picker-upper, with that big white candle and indicators (sto, adx, MA's turning up. I would say there is a fair chance for a pullback of sorts. But I think there is also a fair chance we break the trendline up. I think it's possible for some of the big gainers to take a breather while late-comers to the party warm up a bit. That is, if we really are out of the woods for now.... As I am learning, nothing is 100% guaranteed and words to the wise are best kept in mind. As far as not looking too hot, I don't believe anything about the market environment is really all that hot. Even though we had a good up week for the Nas, not one day did it appear good or obvious that we would put in such a promising set of daily candles. As I recall, the futures faked the wrong eventual direction each and every day. My contrary kind of thinking also make me think that it is very much on purpose to make this thing look as crappy as possible. The market needs to make a case for both sides as not everyone can be buyer and seller at once. The market needs buyers and sellers both together. So actually, the not-hot-looking aspect I find a comfort. The market is once again ignoring bad news, this to me can mean one thing....the market is going to go up again, for no apparent reason, other than maybe "it's time" once again. Also, you got all your doomy-gloomy front page headlines, the pieces seen to be falling in place. Bobby, like I said, no guarantees and no promises...not trying to cram the bullish perspective down everyone's throat. Just trying to explain what I'm thinking and seeing and hoping I'm not to stupid to have any relevance and benefit. Always appreciate your insights... Don't even mind your name for me! Regards, MOONDUDE

To: bobby beara who wrote (66783)	1/13/2001 2:32:51 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Not a great doji, but, even as a cruddy doji, and esp. in combination with failure at 2700 (2699!), and against background of options expiry (nice reminder, Ibexxxxxx), and new Fed uncertainty (Rick Santelli, who seems to be one of the brightest guys CNBC ever consults, interpreted Fed funds futures as factoring in 50/50 of .50, but that trend seems down, pending news, of course), it's still a stalled pattern - just missed turning the DMI on daily COMP chart positive. That said, spot observation of late day action on Nas seemed relatively strong, both in volume going into holiday wknd and in success keeping late losses from getting too hefty. Daily MACD already positive. Weekly DMI/ADX could have bottomed, and the weekly stick is a bullish engulfment of two prior weeks - and further seeming confirmation of weekly hammer of 12/22, whose low was only just slightly breached on the big rally day, and which latter is looking more and more like a classic key reversal. Also had high volume confirmations of said rally, alongside new intermediate highs intraday. So: Intermediate downtrend intact, but stalled, could be turning. Short-term uptrend stalled, but intact. Long-term: Check the monthly Nas going back to '90 (log-scale, of course). At the big moment, the strongest challenge to the long-term tech-led bull market, since Aug 98 and 94-5, is being warded off. Danger's not over, but the danger's never over. All in all, further pullback seems pretty darn likely after a week of heavy lifting (from bottom on Mon to high on Fri in face of one bad report after another). Even the bulls seem to want it. Yet looks like the bottom's in. Probably choppy sideways to Fed meeting, but sustained rally still coming into sight - slower with a .25 cut, faster with a .50. Would need a close above 2700 to set it off, 2725 even better. Even a Nasdaqianly wide trading range between 2250 and 2645 would be pretty darn terrific, if somewhat scarifying, for l-t investors, at least compared to how things looked at the beginning of the month. The market doesn't seem to think there's anything out there likely to drive us back into the wailing and gnashing of teeth phase/bear-jubilee. As we know, the market's always right, until it's wrong, at which point it pretty quickly turns right again. Finally, after looking at the DecisionPoint chart (kind of ridiculous using linear scale to measure a decade-long move) and it's assessments, and reading the Wolunchuk interview, I'm willing to go even further out on a limb and predict that, at some point over the next several years, the Nasdaq will settle down somewhere between 500 and 20000.