Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (45511)	1/13/2001 8:59:42 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I agree it would be a major stretch but I read it this week somewhere?? presented as a serious possibility. Are you sure about the 3 basis pts. being .03 ?...I was sure 3 basis pts. would be the phrase for a full 3%. Anyhoo... the following for your enjoyment: +++++++++++++++++++++ NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Undecided on just how rapidly the U.S. economy is slowing, Wall Street is almost evenly split on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will follow up its surprise half percentage point cut in rates last week, a new Reuters poll showed. Only nine days after the Fed shocked world financial markets with an inter-meeting rate cut, 13 of the 25 primary dealers in U.S. government securities who deal directly with the Fed in the open market predicted the central bank will cut rates by a quarter percentage point at its Jan. 30-31 policy-setting meeting. The remaining 12 dealers predicted the Fed would slash a half point off the federal funds overnight bank lending rate, which currently stands at 6.0 percent. The results of the poll, conducted on Friday after retail sales and inflation data for December came in not as weak as expected, showed a shift in sentiment from the last Reuters poll on Jan. 3, when only two dealers predicted the Fed would cut rates by another 50 basis points. At that time, 21 forecast a 25 basis point cut. While divided on the severity of the Fed's next cut, most dealers see several more cuts in store for the first half of this year, with 15 dealers expecting a full percentage point worth or more in cuts by mid year and one firm expecting 1.5 percentage points in cuts, moving the rate to 4.5 percent. The probability of recession in 2001, on average, was a little more than one in three -- or 36 percent -- with only two dealers predicting a greater than 50 percent chance the U.S. would soon suffer two successive quarters of shrinkage in its gross domestic product, the latest poll found. That is an increase from 28 percent when Reuters lasted polled for recession chances on Dec. 19. The Dec. 19 and Jan. 3 polls surveyed all 26 primary dealers, whereas the current poll has 25 dealers now J.P. Morgan and Chase Securities have merged.