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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FR1 who wrote (66885)	1/15/2001 4:43:35 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Franz Ross: Thanks, I have already seen that analysis. The link has been posted on several threads on SI. The linked analysis is not just TA, but provides a graphical representation of Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis with some Sentiment Analysis thrown in. Just because information is displayed in a chart (or graphical) format, does not always mean it is a pure TA read. Combining graphical representations of various historical data can often provide an easy to see cause and effect and or at the least interrelationships. Of course, when looking at graphical representations of data, one must use a little common sense as well. If leaning more on one form of analysis (fundamental) works best for you, then by all means continue to use it. I use all three forms with a heavy leaning on TA. If the FED was crazy enough to turn bear at the end of January, all those TA charts would be meaningless. Please, let's keep the discussion real. TA is not magic, what it is analyzing data in both a arithmetic and graphical manner. A manner that allows both mathematical indicators and investor behavior patterns to be viewed graphically, charted if you will. It allows one to make educated guesses, sometimes in advance, sometimes real time and sometimes shortly after the fact. I believe if the FED were to make such a radical move as you, it would be for good reasons and those reasons would show up in the graphical representations of the data...the charts! Someone is always in the know..."think like a criminal". EDIT: In common sense, the FED rules. The FED has stated that it is starting its rate cuts. Historically, this is the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull. It usually takes two cuts to really get going. Only one exchange has made a significant delcine during this down turn, not your garden variety bear market, heh? Regards, LG LG

To: FR1 who wrote (66885)	1/15/2001 10:06:16 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>In common sense, the FED rules. The FED has stated that it is starting its rate cuts. Historically, this is the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull. >>> when common sense becomes to common among markit participants it's better to consider using some abstract thought (that would be thinking like george clooney in horizontal stripes -g-) eeergoo the recent year in which the bullz all were riding the animal based on the guaranteed election year bounty, only to be tossed of like so many pretty boy urban cowboy's. i disagreed with another poster on this thread about his bullishness on wcom about a year ago, based on a gap down from it's top on a downward earning revision, the landscape in tech is littered with these now. the common belief is that we'll have a couple of quarters of weak gdp and the greenie miracle will send the economy up up and away again by the 2nd half, however given the recent past semiconductor cycles have lasted at least a year from top to trough and in this one i have never ever heard such extreme bullishness in july such as "the semiconductor cycle has been repealed, we have another two years to go, we are in the beginning of the game" all this bearishness said, i believe we probably did make a tech bottom recently, but i think this rally off the new year bottom, will be more like the rally off the aug 98 low, than the october 98 low, this bottom is nothing like 98, the nasdaq made a year and a half base going into the 98 bottom, this time we are coming off a parabolic top and we have no total capitulation bottom of all stocks like we had in 98. It's quite interesting to see all the talk on the morning an d evening news over the last weeks leading into jan 2nd about the bear market, when most nyse stocks have been in a bull market since march. madame zelda told me the bullish exuberance in the 2000 semiconductor cycle top beat the 97 top hands down and could take 50% longer peak to trough, that along with the fact that we had no inverted yield curve going in the 97 top, indicates that 2001 should be a recession year, and the markits haven't yet priced in this fact, because everybody is to polyanna after a half decade of over mean stock markit gains. brad & jennifer are doin a o k, but baldwin and basinger break[up indicates a soft markit on tuesday -g- dood b