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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (265)	1/17/2001 6:12:30 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95617

RE: "So what is your take on the early returns from NVLS and TER?" Both of these are great companies. TER is the leader in its sector and NVLS has been the most profitable company during both up and down cycles. Their reports, solid results this quarter and modest decreases for the next, are as good as could be expected. Also, front end NVLS is looking at stronger prospects than back end TER. This is also expected. I think that the biggest difference between the bottoms in 1998 and 2000 is that 1998 coincided with a semi-equip business cycle bottom while 2000 has been influenced by a bear market and a general economic slowdown. It was easy to commit all cash and hold for the upswing in 1998. It is much more difficult now. The industry had record sales and profits in 2000 and demand for their products has not been exhausted. The economic weakness will probably extend the period before the next down cycle, but peak sales might have been reached. I believe that peak prices for the up cycle probably have been reached. In this environment, it is difficult to commit all one's cash, even in the face of the low prices we saw in December. It is also difficult to completely sit on the sidelines and wait for the next business cycle bottom. If we continue to move up from here, I would tend to be a seller rather than a buyer. The higher its goes, the more I sell. I would be completely out at moderate to large fractions of the 2000 price peaks.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (265)	1/17/2001 8:57:19 PM
From: Dale Knipschield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

Baird, I pretty much concur with your view that: >Though many make analogies to 1998, one difference I see is that this time the Fed is perceived as having been much more aggressive in raising rates and much slower in deciding to lower them. The surprisingly rapid and profound economic slowing, which elicited the unprecedented 50 pt interim rate cut, may not have been fully discounted in terms of its severity or its duration.< I think a rapid recovery could be affected, except for the great unknown surrounding the price of oil. If the announced production cuts become reality, we can look for higher prices again, along with an unknown, but certainly negative impact on the overall economy. The new administration has its work cut out to re-establish this economy on firm ground. Regards, Knip