SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mika Kukkanen who wrote (4475)1/17/2001 12:50:28 PM
From: Jim Oravetz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5390
 
Semi-OT:The Isle of Man: A Working Lab for 3G Wireless

BT Manx's debut of high-speed service on the tiny British island could provide important clues about what customers want
After the billions of dollars telecommunications companies spent in Europe to win licenses to offer next-generation cellular-phone service, the question now is: Will they make money? For most networks, that answer lies a few years down the road, but BT Manx, the Isle of Man telecommunications subsidiary of British Telecom, hopes to have an answer this spring.

That's when BT Manx goes live with Europe's first -- and, it hopes, the world's first -- UMTS network. UMTS, or universal mobile telecommunications system, is the third generation of mobile telecom services and promises high-speed data-transmission capabilities to enable users to have full Internet access, view full-motion video, and download music onto a handset or a personal digital assistant -- as well as simply make a phone call. The infrastructure, being provided by a joint venture of Germany's Siemens and Japan's NEC, is largely in place.

The project will make the tiny Isle of Man (population 75,000) an important test case in world telecommunications. "BT hopes to make real money in the large markets, and the island will give an indication of what people will use," says BT Manx Project Director Mark Briers. "We're taking the lab to the field and serving real customers. And anything we give them that takes a day off their launch time is money in the pocket."

SIMPLE, SIMPLE, SIMPLE. BT hopes that what it learns in the Isle of Man project will help it get its money's worth out of the many other UMTS projects it has around the world. The company has UTMS licenses or holdings in licenses in Britain, The Netherlands, Germany, Japan, and Spain. The stakes involved are huge: Its British license alone cost $6 billion.

The BT Manx project could make islanders leaders in using new mobile-phone-based e-commerce services. BT Manx has a monopoly on the Isle of Man, and based on mobile-phone penetration so far of 38% and Internet penetration of over 50%, Briers figures UMTS penetration could grow to more than 50%. To avoid customer confusion, BT Manx is trying to make its service as easy to understand as possible. The mantra, says Briers, is simplicity: "Simple to use, simple to buy, and simple to pay for. The consumer shouldn't have to think about how complex these services are and how convoluted the billing could be."

The key now is coming up with enough good uses to lure consumers. Several application vendors on the project are testing their services in Japan, Germany, and Britain at NEC and Siemens labs this month. "Since we are the first," Briers says, "we want to showcase what UMTS can do." BT Manx is concentrating on developing applications for business and youth, with the general private market a distant third in terms of importance. The focus on youth should be no surprise, Briers says. "Mobile and youth go hand in hand."

SPACE-AGE DEVICE. The NEC mobile phones BT Manx plans to use will have optional image-viewer terminals to make advanced video services possible. The viewer is a very slim space-age-like device with a camera and a 2.5-inch video screen that plugs into the handset.

A wide array of services are under development. For instance, one company involved, Image.com, is an expert in real-time video. "An important application is something that image.com already does, but which is very expensive: They connect ambulances and hospitals with a satellite communication link. With UMTS, it is simpler and far cheaper to transmit patient data," Briers says.

UTMS also allows for quick videoconferencing without the hassle and expense of a specially equipped room. GamePlay.com, an online games specialist, is writing exclusive games for the BT Manx project. Siemens is developing a product called "Ilse of Man on Air" for which many local companies are creating services. "We've started projects with financial institutions, hotels [and others] -- to develop applications for that," says Briers. "Banks are working out secure ways to sell mortgages and insurance online. A hotelier is developing services that allow you to use your handset to look at a room, check in, and book a table for dinner."

FINDING VENDORS. Some of the software companies were "willing to absorb a significant amount of the development costs," says Tom Meageen, who is responsible for putting the info-tech infrastructure for the project in place. Meageen says he looked at some 15 vendors for flexibility, scalability, and cost before selecting Xacct Technologies to develop software to collate the data on usage, type of content, and rate of transmission. He also signed on Cerillion Technologies to develop the billing software.

Services will probably be sold in some sort of package, such as the ones pay-TV companies offer. The customer will get only one bill, but it will cover many services, such as fees for downloading a song, a video, or a game. To keep things simple, BT Manx is considering charging a flat fee for a given package of services, Briers says. The company also hopes to keep handset prices low so users will accept UMTS more quickly, he says. "Clearly, the desire is to roll out to a mass market, and the devices must be priced according to what people can afford, like a PDA," Briers admits. "That could imply subsidization."

BT Manx wants to be profitable "as soon as possible," Briers says. No surprise there. But regardless of what happens on the Isle of Man, the company will learn a lot about what works -- and what makes money -- with UMTS. BT Manx paid nothing for its Isle of Man license, which was awarded by the local government. But the information it gathers on the island could be worth a fortune in other UMTS projects around the world.

businessweek.com



To: Mika Kukkanen who wrote (4475)1/19/2001 5:22:25 AM
From: Mika Kukkanen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5390
 
Totally OT about GSTRF - a rant

'eck, some people just don't get it. Been reading the Qcom thread and it still amazes me how blinkered some people can be! Great technology, but that means virtually nothing. We called that it would never make money even though some say there is a 'huge' market out there and that is where the big lie lies. Great technology comes at a price and one this 'huge' market can not afford. Now I hear "oh yes, if they sell it at 10 to 20 cents a minute..". Oh dear, they still don't get it. They have absolutely no idea about interconnection and transit fees, costs never seem to come into their equations.

Oh well, at least E/// made some money out of it as they were contracted by GSTRF to make a few thousand phones - just hope they got paid for it as tooling costs and the rest would have been expensive..pretty sure they got that cost up front as they even knew there was no market!

Satellite communication is nothing new. I used it for the first and only time some ten years ago. If you really need that sort of communication link then you have had it available for over 20 years - a proofing point that many have ignored. Okay so it is not a 'handsized' unit, well nor was Iridium's or Globalstar's.

It's over. Let it rest in peace. The real problem was misguided investors whom over hyped technology/service and know little about a given market - sound familiar?

And before I start getting flamed as anti this or that, I would just like to point out that in the next week I hope to sign up my second San Diego based telecom supplier/manufacturer customer (see, you didn't even know about the first one!).

Oooo, I feel better now.
M



To: Mika Kukkanen who wrote (4475)1/20/2001 2:33:58 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5390
 
3G will separate the men from the boys. The key word is IMPLEMENTATION. In 2G, ERICY bags the contract and then executed at leisure. It is well known in the business.

Now this don't cut anymore. Hence the customers putting tough penalties for delays. This called ERICY's bluff. They can't deliver. That's why they are pulling back.



To: Mika Kukkanen who wrote (4475)1/20/2001 12:14:47 PM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 5390
 
"either that it has a production bottle-neck and cannot supply all the necessary equipment within the time-frame specified by its client, or that it is in a financing impasse - and reluctant to increase its exposure to Mobilcom

Mobilcom's UMTS network moves sends warning signals
By Ouida Taaffe, Total Telecom

17 January 2001
Mobilcom has announced that it is considering Siemens, Nokia and Alcatel as further suppliers of its UMTS network equipment. It has had an agreement with Ericsson as sole supplier - and funder of the network build-out - since October 2000.

The reason given by Mobilcom was its desire to get the UMTS network up and running as quickly as possible. It aims to launch services in the middle of next year. Further, work with two network providers is said to offer "a greater degree of security across the board when planning."

What the latter statement may mean is, of course, open to speculation. Mobilcom, which is 28% owned by France Telecom, would obviously be well advised to begin making returns on its UMTS investments as soon as possible. However, just this cost pressure would suggest that Mobilcom may be looking for more than fast access to kit in talking to Siemens, Nokia and Alcatel.

Equally, the fact that Ericsson is, apparently, not seeking to prevent its competitors working with Mobilcom could indicate either that it has a production bottle-neck and cannot supply all the necessary equipment within the time-frame specified by its client, or that it is in a financing impasse - and reluctant to increase its exposure to Mobilcom.

Ericsson would not discuss the way in which it decides customer supply pecking order. It did stress that it is not "looking at bottlenecks," even though it has the lion's share of the UMTS equipment market with a total of 22 contracts out of 33 awarded world-wide. (Among the companies for which it will provide equipment are NTT DoCoMo, Japan Telecom and Vodafone). The turnkey deal with Mobilcom was for a value of US$1.35 billion and contained penalty clauses should the network not be up and running by the middle of 2002.

What speaks for potential financial conflict is the fact that all vendors have become rather less generous in their finance provision. When the initial contract was signed between Mobilcom and Ericsson, the cost of building out the network was to be carried by the vendor - i.e. Ericsson. Now, where once, certainly in the case of a start-up, such financing could have covered all of the equipment cost and also included some working capital, it has become much less lavish. This is partly because banks are reluctant to take on extra telecoms exposure - vendors can find that within project finance deals they carry the risk with other cash only becoming available once certain milestones have been reached - and partly because many already have heavy exposure. Figures ranging from US$1 billion for Ericsson up to US$8 billion for Lucent have been named in the industry.

The squeeze on vendor finance is not the only factor that speaks for pecuniary pressure on Mobilcom. The hiccups encountered in syndicating out the E4.7 billion loan to Mobilcom to cover the cost of the UMTS license - despite the background presence of France Telecom - also supports this. (The facility was organised by Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale and ABN Amro). Although the loan was sold down successfully, it is known that some banks were not interested in the deal.

Mobilcom reports that it has a 22% share of the German mobile market and also that it is fully integrated into France Telecom's mobile strategy. It is certainly France Telecom's bridgehead beyond the Rhine, bringing a well-known brand and energetic management.

The CFO of Orange recently mentioned that the French company intended to make use of Mobilcom's CEO Gerhard Schmid's "entrepreneurial skills elsewhere" within France Telecom. This is, obviously, a slightly gnomic utterance that lends itself to speculation. However, it is tempting to wonder whether the apparent pressure at Mobilcom, both to get 3G revenues flowing, and to fund the necessary build-out, might not have further ramifications.

The obvious candidate for providing funding for Mobilcom is France Telecom, which has an option on the majority of the company from 2003. Those in the market did not seem to consider it likely in the near term - France Telecom may have other, and more pressing, fish to fry. Apart from that, Gerhard Schmid really is highly entrepreneurial and could have several marketing cards up his sleeve. However, it is still interesting to wonder how Mobilcom will fight its financial corner in the coming months.