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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (9271)	1/17/2001 10:25:03 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, <<Actually, there's a third choice: outsource production to foundries. More and more companies are doing that each cycle as well. That improves capital efficiency industry-wide, which is good.>> Speaking of foundries, do you have any opinions on TSM or UMC here? Or a couple of their users, flash companies like SST and SNDK? TIA, Sam

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (9271)	1/17/2001 11:36:52 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, I stand corrected. Foundries are a most acceptable alternative to spending $2B or going out of business for many chipmakers. Even though this forces the foundries to spend money, Capacity is more efficiently used than if 30 chipmakers each brought in a new fab. All the same, I see this quite positively for the industry. Capacity build excesses seen to be more moderate; and troughs seem to be of shorter duration. Witness: INTC's Capex announcement; and NVLS's 2001 booking estimate with 2H2001 bookings forecast to set new all time records for NVLS after only a 2 Q downturn. G., The street is now able to see past the current trough even though the immediate fundamentals are probably going to be negative. Remember your posts of 6 months ago. The street looked through the ramp up in bookings as well as other fundamentals; and correctly predicted this downturn prior to the rollout of Copper and 300mm. Like you, I disagreed with the street much to my chagrin. I don't intend to fight them on the way back up. Ian.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (9271)	1/21/2001 11:33:54 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, I wonder if you have heard anything about availability of 300 mm. WFR, the only US based company, seems to be out of that game (except research facilities and research wafers), and the leading supplier, SEH, as well as Wacker and Sumitomo, don't seems to have visibility of news releases in the US press. With about 10 to 15 300 fabs coming on line in the next 18 to 24 months (if my count does not have double counts), that might end up with between 300,000 to 400,000 wafers per year, not a small task and requiring some major cap-ex. I would appreciate any info you might have gathered. Thanks in advance Zeev