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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (9275)	1/17/2001 11:51:36 AM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

<The street is now able to see past the current trough even though the immediate fundamentals are probably going to be negative. < The street is assuming that there is a foreseeable end to the "trough". At the same time, if you've listened to any of the cc's you know that the management's of all of these company's are basically saying: "we're taking our best guess as to what's going to transpire, BUT, its very hard to tell, things are very murky out there". The recent rally seems very speculative to me. Its based upon the assumption that things will turn for the economy in the next 3-6 months. I have no idea if they will or not, but, since it will take time to find out, I doubt the rally will continue very long without positive economic news. For the semi business, in general, I think the numbers to really watch are the balance of trade figures and the import numbers, in particular. Given the incredibly large dependence that most of Asia has on exporting to the U.S., if there is a fall off in imports it will quickly translate into a very severe downturn in places like China, Korea, Japan, HK, Malaysia. These are also the great growth markets for electronics equipment and, hence, semiconductors. If imports hold up reasonably well and employment holds up for 3 more months there will be a nice soft landing. However, if imports really sag there will be a chain reaction around the world. If employment here falls off it will compound the situation very much.